What can Nepal Maoist Win mean to India?

I have been hearing about Delhi's uneasiness about Nepal Maoist win. Delhi seem to have been overly attached with NC and UML in the past days and more than Maoist win, the two parties loss has been a greater headache. This always happens to any ally and has happened this time to all the NC and UML allies inside and outside Nepal.

There was mistake on the part of India (China and US too) for not understanding the increased influence of Maoist in Nepal. They have severely underestimated. But does this mean problem for India?

Certainly NOT. India is the biggest democracy and a republic state for long. Indian democracy has been very inclusive and had been successful. It is one of the best managed economy now and a serious contender for the future superpower. And the biggest challenge for India had always been the unstable neighbors. Let us talk about the neighbors now.

-- Pakistan has huge internal problems from the fundamentalism to terrorism.
-- Sri Lanka has been suffering LTTE crisis which took the island country from one of the Asian stars in 70s to one poor struggling state now.
-- Bangladesh has been getting unstable with passing time and the political stability is getting away.
-- Bhutan has done moderately successful ethnic cleaning exercise and have been able to bring economy in good note, but this can hardly be stable. The corruption and inequality has been in rise there. Of late the government has been more controlled by the ethnic Drukpas while the private sector is falling more to the remaining Gurkha population. The Gurkha are sure to ask for more inclusion in the Governance in days ahead.

This is over and above the Bhutanese Refugee problem. More than 100 thousand Nepali speaking Gurkhas are living as political refugees in Nepal and are now sent in third country settlement to US, New Zealand and other countries. This may be good for refugees but for Bhutan, this can only be immediate relief. Once the Bhutanese settle in these countries, they are sure to lobby for more democratic and inclusive Bhutan.

-- Burma has its problems. Junta has been ruling with Military prowess and it is not going to remain for long. The people are exploited and they are in revolution. So more serious problems is pending.

So now with so much happening around India, can India become a Superpower? The problematic neighbors can be easily taken to act in favor of India by puppetizing the government. But equally probable is other powers puppetizing Nepalese government and made to act against India. This can hurt India much more if this happens. India and Nepal has very close traditional relations from the cultural and religious similarity. And a anti-India Nepal can be a anti-Iraq Kuwait or anti-US Cuba or anti-Russia Gorgia.

And having a puppet government in Nepal can serve little cause for India. Nepal can hardly be used against any other powers like China. The Himalayas block the possibility. The benefit that Nepal can give to India can easily be achieved from Kashmir or Arunachal Pradesh. So no added advantage in having a puppet.
I have always respected India for respecting sovereigneity of its neighbors. It has given away Independence to Bangladesh after winning it from Pakistan. And History makes Indian intention very clear. But few people still doubt. Let me analyse the possibility of Indian occupation of Nepal and its aftermath.
India can never annex Nepal for various reasons:
1. Huge Gurkha (Nepali speaking) population in India will not like it and may turn against India.
2. There are chances Indian Gurkha turn against India as they have marital and cultural relations with Nepalese.
3. Nepal in India will make a huge Nepali speaking people in India. From Kashmir to Nagaland (including Darzeeling, Sikkim and Bhutan), there will be a virtual belt of Nepali people. This may create a increased Gorkhaland movement which may turn being a great disaster.
4. Any attempt to annex Nepal will not be tolerated by China. It may well bring two giants at War.
5. International Image that India has today will be lost.
6. Nepal in India will bring more problems like increased Agad, Tharu and Maithili speaking people. Thus will bring the Nepali Madesh issues here, which may turn to divide Bihar into Mithila, Agad and Bhojpur.
7. Nepal is pre-dominantly Communist and Nepal in India can never be good for Indian Congress or BJP, two major Indian parties.
8. Nepal has good army and they are sure to give a good resistance to block any such move.

So now, when there is no chance of takeover and no gain of puppetization. The stable and prosperous Nepal can only benefit India. Hopefully once Nepal gets stable and good economy, it will be able to end any terrorism acts going on through Nepal, which Delhi has been pointing for long.

Maoist on this plane has so many benefits to give to India.
1. They are going to be only power in Nepal. Thus India will not have to many powers and create confusion in its foreign policy. This will increase trust among the governments as well as the general public.
2. Maoist government has promised to work on economic agenda. This will be very beneficial to India than a Nepali Government working on Political agenda to save their vested interest.
3. India can look to work close with Nepal Maoist to end Maoist movement in India.
4. Nepal Maoist has been very strict in dealing with irregularities. They have adopted violent means too to control them. So in days ahead, Nepal is set to have low corruption and Terrorism activities. India can only consider itself lucky here.
5. Maoist have welcome Indian investment in Nepal in big way. This can be used by Indian companies to tap Nepali and Chinese Market. Power Sector has already been eagerly looked by Indian Business conglomerate with much interest. Now Infra-structure, Cement, Petroleum, Retail, Telecom etc can be other sectors waiting huge Indian investments.
6. Bihar, UP and Bengal has been developing slow and has been creating lots of problems to the Central Government initiative of quick economic development. A positive and economically active Nepal will better serve the Indian Government here.
7. A Economically and socially powerful Nepal will defend itself from external influences and the chances of Nepal being used against India ends.
8. Nepal Maoist or any other party will never go pro-China. It is simply not possible when most Nepalese have marital and cultural ties with Indian people. So at worst, they can be non Pro-India. This means a fair Nepal and non-corrupt politicians.
9. India will save millions of rupees and lot many higher education seats, which the corrupt government is believed to be taking from India in the name of remaining pro-India. This has hardly benefited India. One side it was direct loss of money and education seats, which could have been better used to feed poor Indians and giving them access to quality education.
Other side, this has created a sense of doubt in Nepali public. They see this as wrong Indian intentions, which in reality has nothing to do with intention. I see this more of a habit than intention. Indian Government has been providing help to Nepalese through Nepal Government and corrupt government has been eating all these. So India has been losing from all sides here. This may end now.

Short Summary:
There may be some unease at the start dealing with Maoist government but certainly Maoist Landslide Victory has all good for India.

Update on 19th April. Follow up reading:
1. Interview with Dr. Baburam Bhattarai
2. From Revolution to Crisis Management form Nepali Times
3. Views from The Hindu
4. Reuters on Maoist Win

Update on 20th April. Follow up reading.
Bibek Poudel on Nepal Maoists and the CA Election Aftermath

Cross Border Terrorism Increasing - But Shall we close Indo-Nepal Border?

I don't see Terrorism as any big problem to force us to be closed doors. And most of it is not targeted against each other. There are hardly any elements in Nepal who want to terrorize India and vice versa. The threat is about third country terrorists entering the duo, from Bangladesh or Pakistan. This calls for better understanding and co-operation between Indian and Nepali authorities. And certainly Visa implementation is not the solution.

Open borders have many economic gains. India is one of the world's largest market and it has the potential of being world's second largest market very soon. The spending culture of India is a great opportunity for us. It is best served when there is more people to people contact.

Consider the case of launch of Wai Wai in India by CG Foods in India. It got a huge success, thanks to huge brand ambassadors, all Nepali Living in India or visiting India.

(European Union - Changes in Real Wages and Productivity. This clearly shows open border and greater co-operation increases productivity keeping real wages low. Good opportunity for companies to tap and grow.)

Not to forget is a close cultural and social linkages. This social linkages has benefited both sides for time immemorial. We are possibly the only two Hindu dominated society in the world and that has opened huge cultural tourism opportunity for both sides. And Indian tourists are the most spending tourist in the world, they have surpassed Americans recently. That calls for better hospitality towards the Indians to uplift our National Economy.

Co-operation between India is increasing and we can only benefit from it. Both are now economic powers hungry to rule the economic world and both will hardly try to contain Nepal in anyway. They are co-operating in Global Leadership and same time fighting for leadership in Asia. We have to learn to live and grow with them.

I would favor no visa but id card system between Nepal and China too. That will open more opportunity for us. Not to forget is our poor performing manufacturing economy and a small market. Now I don't see any possibility of Nepal being a manufacturing hub in any future course as we can never produce cheaper than our giant neighbors. And there is no necessity too. We have huge potential to remain a market economy with service focus. For this open border with India is a huge plus, which is still not exploited by us. Let us not go back but move further and tap the opportunity.

I have said whatever I had to. What's you take? Please do not forget to share as comment.

Black Sheep of Nepali Politics

I was surprised to see recent comment from Rajendra Mahato, leader of Nepal Sadhbhawana Party (Anandidevi) and Minister of Industry and Commerce. In his own words :

'people of hill may live in Madhes only if they agree to be ruled by Madhesis.'

This is one of the most irresponsible comment I had seen so far. And I know the source where it came from. His party is simply losing grounds to MPRF, MJF and JTTM, and his political career is at stake. This type of comment is not expected from a Minister and a responsible leader. The motive of giving such comment can be nothing more than inviting confrontation between the Nepali communities.

Mr. Mahato was once a powerful leader of NSP, a prominent party with good public support in the Terai region. Now, no one talks about NSP. And still, there are two NSPs. So, they are facing identity crises now. Thanks to their actions in the last 12 years of democracy. None of the Terai issues were put up strongly by NSP, they simply did only the opportunistic politics. In actual, they never believed in power of mass of the Madhesias in Terai and the recent movement surprised them like the Jana-andolan II surprised the whole 7 parties.

More to this, while being a leader he may represent a party but when he is a minister he should take the responsibility of all Nepalis. So neither his sentiment of ruling or being ruled is justified nor driving away Pahades from Terai. I would give him a title for his comments, the Black Sheep of Nepali Politics.

Regarding his statement, this is all I have to say. There is no question of ruling and being ruled. We are no longer in a monarchy or any other autocracy. We are a democratic country and in any future course, we will be having functional democracy either federal or not. The government will be formed by election under that democratic setup and it will be government of the Nepali People, not Madesias and not Pahades. CA will decide either we get republic or liberal monarchy. Active Monarchy will not be accepted in any way and republic is the general public demand, but if anyone choses to fight the election with liberal monarch system, we can give him a chance. But in any case, the decision of Nepali People will be final.

The federalism has gone once and for ever. We will decide the type of governance, we will form the government and it should function in our mandate. Any thought will be welcome, but not to run government by intuition and get favor by nomination; but to express in a coordinated manner and to ask for public mandate on it.

I want to attract the attention of our leaders. You guys are not the rulers, instead our leaders. We follow you, respect you and pay you, and give you the authoritative power in the government to take our country forward, not to rule us. Do not try to fool us or rule us. If we can take you to Singha Durbar, we can bring you to street also.

I seriously comdemn his comment and put forward my demand of sacking him from the ministership. We want a collective government and a progressive government, not a irresponsible and opportunistic government. This government seems to be of the people who held no public support, and they are there just because they once had. We need to move forward to Constitution Assembly election as early as possible and give the authority to the new powers.

I sense big conspiracy being played to delay CA elections by the 7 parties. They know their fate very well. Nepali Congress is the sole party representing Democrats and all know that. So it has its life but no way it can be the major force atleast in the coming election. The clear majority will go to Maoist, and MJF and JTMM may establish themselves as regional political force (I don't say communal). We can have better demographics representation, but communal will be dangerous. Hope MJF and JTMM finds a good way to settle down and be able to solve the genuine demands from the Terai grassroot, while controlling the wrong doing activities being done in their name.

Nepali politics is in real crossroad now and we all Nepali must be aware of any game played to disturb the society by the losing forces. It is the responsibility of all of us to make sure that the transition goes well.

Lastly, I like to remind all Nepalis that Nepal has always been a hospitable place. Nepal has record of being only non-secular country in the world respecting all religions and only country in South Asia with no ethnic or communal clashes. Lets keep this always. Lets not get agitated with comments from irresponsible people like Minister Mahato (Hope he reverts back and does responsible politics).

We need Peace to develop and for that we need unity. Our unity has always been our strength and we have the honour of being the only country never ruled by external forces. Thanks to our bravery and unity. Let us not let our ego kill our pride. Our Nepal our Pride. Long Live Unity.

Burning Madesh and Quiet Pahadis

I just came across a blog "Democracy For Nepal" by Paramendra Bhagat. Mr. Bhagat seems to be very deep into Nepali politics and he has written really good articles.

Among them I got my attention to this article.

Why Are The Pahadis Quiet?

Well, I was quiet while Tarai was burning. There was a genuine struggle going on, there were criminal activities going on under its cover and there was State acting harsh on the revolutionaries. I never thought of contributing anything to this struggle. But I had never asked myself, WHY?

Now, I had that question in my mind for last one hour. The reason was I did not want any more political struggle in Nepal. I just want to take rest. I don't care whoever be in power. I just want to give sometime for the freshly emerged political circle the 8 parties (Maoist and 7 Democratic parties). The political parties plus maoist have better representative equality in terms of social or demographic communities than any previous powers. It shows that the change is happening and Nepal is moving forward. We just need to work sincerely from our side and give enough time for the parties to work.

Many of my friends from Madesh may not agree with me. They may still say that the social issues need to be sorted out. That is a fair claim. But it is also not the end of the political struggle path. We have many such issues. Nepal is very much diverse in terms of language and culture, if we go forward with Federal setup we will have at least 50 states; and if we go with reservations then even with the full seats on quotas, someone will not be getting his share.

The real problem is the lack of sufficient seats in basic and higher education, and in job. We have less scholarship or regular engineering and medical seats than most Indian states (may be all). We have a economy almost stagnant for the last 10 years. Before that also we were almost always in war for 50 years. Frankly speaking, we have nothing to share or distribute.

So, I appeal to all the Nepalis of all caste and creed, to please refrain from any further political struggle. Let us give sometime to this newly emerged forces. Let us work and create a better Nepal with a economic revolution. Let us give Political Revolution once and for ever.

Long Live Our Unity. Jai Nepal.

Burning Madesh

I think, we are getting wrong from the very basic. I dont agree the Madhesias being discriminated. It is the normal nepali being discriminated in Nepal. It is all due to feudalism that existed for years.

Nepal was a good place for the Ranas, Shahs, Pandays and Thapas, who had their representation in the government till Rana rule existed. After that Koiralas came and so do Adhikaris etc.. by virtue they all belong to Pahade Brahmin and Chettriyas. (Not everybody in these castes also benefitted)

I have never received any special treatment from our government or the non-government bodies, may be because I did not have strong jack in the power posts. So do many of my Pahade Brahnmin friends. We struggled our course and whatever we are today, it is just because of our hard work.

I seriously feel, Nepali politicians to be very intelligent people. They find one or the other ways to inflate people and have one or more revolution in every ten years. But these people are neither serious of the actual problem nor they get fully successful. Neither was Rana rule completely wiped out in 2007, nor was democracy fully established in 2046. Even now I fear whether we will be able to establish a Democratic Republic Nepal. This is a dream, a distant dream.

When someone talk about being humilated by people calling them Madhesi, I remember myself being irritated when someone call Khatha. Rais and Limbus are often called Chepte. Gurung are called Bhede and Newars are called Pate. It is actually not about these words. The reality is we have been left behind economically. We are poor. It is a reality, we all must realise this. We all Nepalis are poor, we have hardly any identity in the world other than being from the himalayan country or from place of Gautam Buddha. We have done nothing in the last 100 years and we take our frustrations to the street in various names, sometime democratic struggle, sometime Republic struggle, sometime social equality struggle and sometime anti-struggle movement.

Shame to all of us Nepalis. Hope things change in future.

Jai Nepal