New Nepal Should Have New Thought

Newly formed Nepal government will have many challenges going forward and they will have to work actively and aggressively. It is challenging but not impossible.

Here are my suggestions for the new Nepal Government.

1. Integration to Global Economy
Free Trade Agreement with China, Japan and US to make the economy multi-lateral. This can be in-line with FTA with India.
This should be accompanied with aggressive infrastructure building to get maximum benefit from these bilateral treaties and SAFTA.

2. Suitable Investment Climate
Industrial Protection Act and Liberal Labor Regime to increase investor confidence. Indian Business houses in particular needs to be protected which are the most affected ones, as in todays world Indian Corporates are among the best governed and most aggressive ones. Entry of Companies like IBM, Accenture, GM, GE, Toyota, Infosys, Reliance, Bharti, ICICI etc can completely change the way companies function in Nepal. They will bring quality technology and huge volume of business, thus creating huge employment and great technological know-how.

3. Independent Planning and Execution of National Projects
National Planning Commission with more representation from Nepali Private sector and less dependent from donor agency like ADB, WB or IMF. ADB, WB and IMF are the masters of putting useless conditions for their help and thus take economy towards more bad, so that their relevance in the world remains. Their conditions should not be taken unless utmost necessary and their overall involvement in the economy should be reduced as far as possible.

4. Government Investment Channelization to increase Professionalism
Establishment of a Professional Investment Company to hold all Government Investments in all companies in the lines of Tamasek, Singapore. This needs to be run by Professional Managers on Competitive Excellence Basis.

5. Aggressive Infrastructure Development by adopting all mediums
Open Infrastructure Development Policy to bring in Huge Foreign Institutional Investment (FII) and Foreign Direct Investment (FDI). This should be mainly targeted towards building Hydro-Power, Telecoms, and Transport Facilities.

6. A Nuclear, Power Sufficient Nepal
Nuclear Energy Development Board to work with India and China for development of Nuclear Energy in civil use. RONAST needs to be made more professional and pulled to support Nuclear Case.
Nepal is reach in Hydro-resources but it should not just stick to its use because production and maintenance of Hydro-power is not efficient and effective. Argentina and Hungary has already seen very bad economic and environmental effect with over focus on Hydropower and Nepal needs to learn form them.
Nuclear Energy is safe and has cost effective maintenance. This makes it favorable for long term interest of the economy.

7. where there is Resources there needs to be Military
Effective Military Development more on the lines of Singapore, less Army but most sophisticated and modern equipment.
It can also be making of SAMA (South Asian Military Alliance) or joining Shanghai Co-operation or NATO. This will make sovereign voice strong.

8. Complement India and Not Consume India
Cancellation of 1950 Ind0-Nepal Treaty and replacing it with a new one. This should take care of changed political and economic scenario between the two culturally similar nations. It can be in lines of US-Canada Relation.
Nepal should work on building more natural relations with India on the lines of Australia or UK having with US. This will mean having more meaningful and business friendly relations, and not based on favoritism and puppetism.
Nepal is India's natural ally and vice-versa. They are so much culturally linked that in there is unlikely that the bond will weaken or break. This needs to be actively voiced.
The good and progressive relation will mean great for private sector from both the countries. Indian business houses can invest heavily in Hydro-Power and other areas, while Nepali Business will have one of the World's largest Market for their products. This will increase people to people contact and in good note, which I feel is better than India Government financing projects in Nepal and providing aid (which actually flows to few corrupt takers).

9. Upgradation of Rural and Agricultural Economy
Agricultural Revolution is the next thing in line, and this is the right time to start. With Petroleum cost rising and subsequently food prices rising with the production of bio-fuel, the market for food products is huge.
Nepal has good and fertile land, and can produce much more than it is doing today. It just needs effective people awareness. Government can play a facilitator by creating Tax Breaks for companies involved in food production, distribution and processing industries. This should however be accompanied with good policy for bringing in international players to maintain quality of service.

10. Strict and Good Governance
Hard stance on Anti-Government forces accompanied with effective Government facilities. single window can be created to pay all bills like electricity bill, water bill, taxes etc. This can be outsourced to a professional company and operated 24 hrs in major areas with complete IT Automated Facilities.
It is very important to have strong anti-terrorism and anti-corruption act to include capital punishment. There should be no second thought in clear anti-socials from the country and the economy.

Nepal India Relations: Moving Forward?

Earlier, you read a post by Bhupendra, co-blogger of this blog about the implications that Maoists' win in Nepal can bring to India. He has tried his best to dispel the fear among Indians, and particularly, the fear of fundamental Hindus. Among many in India, these fundamentalists like BJP and RSS think that emergence of Maoists in Nepal is just a first step to make a corridor of Communists from Pashupati, Nepal to Tirupati, India.

If the Indian mainstream Medias and analysts are to be believed, they see Maoists as offspring of current china Regime. They see the rise of red flags in the streets of every villages and even in sophisticated towns of Nepal as a Security threat to India. Some lamented that Indian Government could not do anything against Red Uprising, Some showed their anger towards the functioning of government in India and lamented the ignorance of Indian establishment. Some analysts were even quick to comment that India gifted Nepal to China by brokering peace between Maoists and mainstream Nepalese Political Parties. There are even people in India who see the whole process of maintenance of peace as something sponsored by Christian dominated countries and see the whole process of emergence of Maoists as an attack to Hinduism. As usual, the voices of some was even tougher harsh and undignified by suggesting that India must take appropriate steps (meaning pressure tactics, mainly economic and diplomatic as well as military might) to ensure that Nepal does not escape from its palm. For these last kind of analysts, Nepal is just their hereditary property bequeathed by their forefathers and a mere chattel on the hand of India Establishment. So, there was no second thought to express various views on the rebirth of Nepal by Indian Analysts and by security experts.With these developments in Nepal, there are various quarters who believe that the relation of India with Nepal is going to be complicated. On the same line, some think that this is a right time for the military overtake in Nepal which is certainly not improving the ties between these two great nations. The last set of views only fuel the anti-Indian sentiments in Nepal which is not good for both the countries.

The doubt of various kinds was heard may be because of Maoists' past policies seeing India as an expansionist force. Their aim was to even fight with India to defeat Indian Military and make a communist ruled south Asia. That was their plan before 2001 AD. But, after the royal massacre in Nepal, Maoists felt that they can not move alone and saw the greater chances to win if they cooperated with other political parties. So, from that time onwards, Maoists made a revolutionary change taking part in peace process and they understood that multi party democracy can be the safe landing for them. It shows the Maoists' commitments to multi party democracy from that time. The thought processes and debates within the party from 2001 to 2003 gave a concrete shape to this ideology.

The rhetoric of "American Imperialism" and "Indian Expansionism" was slowly changed towards working with all neighboring and friendly states. The first thing Prachanda (Comrade Prachanda as usually said in the Maoist party is popular name of Maoist Chairman Puspa Kamal Dahal) spoke after his victory in election in Kathmandu shows that how serious and important are the issues to build a friendly relationship with neighbors. He unequivocally talked about equal distance from two giant neighbors- India and China but emphasized the "special relationship that Nepal shares with India".

What does that Mean?

That must mean two things, and two good things for the people of India and Nepal. One is that Maoists have understood the ground reality and location of Nepal and can not afford to lose the Indian support. Indian support is required in Nepal for the sustainable peace of Nepal, for Nepal to be economically developed. Maoists have also understood that Nepal can gain nothing by antagonizing India.

So, does that mean being submissive to India in every respects? Not exactly. The strong message that Maoists gave to review the Friendship treaty of 1950 between India and Nepal must be a message to every Nepali that still they can hold their head high and Maoists are not just another party like Nepali Congress or CPN UML in that respect. But, the message of scrapping 1950 Treaty does not mean waging war against India. And, this news should not send any jitters to Indian Establishment.

It is rather the right time to negotiate with Nepalese Government which commands the greatest legitimacy in Nepal in its entire history. If we remember the days when this peace treaty was signed in 1950, the government Nepal had was still of Ranas, one of the most autocratic regime in Nepalese history. India can not take advantage of this treaty forever when the treaty itself was signed in dark ages of Nepalese History.

And, except these some of the so- called political analysts and experts, the news of call for treaty review has not created much flutter in south block and sorrounding areas. The view of Indian Foreign Secretary that India is ready to review the treaty is a very good and first step that India has taken to strengthen the bilateral ties.

That must be a good news for India and Nepal. This is a time when both countries can take the friendly relations forward if Indian Establishment does not get instigated by these comments from various quarters, There is a need of genuine involvement in conversation and which alone can take the peace process forward.

What can Nepal Maoist Win mean to India?

I have been hearing about Delhi's uneasiness about Nepal Maoist win. Delhi seem to have been overly attached with NC and UML in the past days and more than Maoist win, the two parties loss has been a greater headache. This always happens to any ally and has happened this time to all the NC and UML allies inside and outside Nepal.

There was mistake on the part of India (China and US too) for not understanding the increased influence of Maoist in Nepal. They have severely underestimated. But does this mean problem for India?

Certainly NOT. India is the biggest democracy and a republic state for long. Indian democracy has been very inclusive and had been successful. It is one of the best managed economy now and a serious contender for the future superpower. And the biggest challenge for India had always been the unstable neighbors. Let us talk about the neighbors now.

-- Pakistan has huge internal problems from the fundamentalism to terrorism.
-- Sri Lanka has been suffering LTTE crisis which took the island country from one of the Asian stars in 70s to one poor struggling state now.
-- Bangladesh has been getting unstable with passing time and the political stability is getting away.
-- Bhutan has done moderately successful ethnic cleaning exercise and have been able to bring economy in good note, but this can hardly be stable. The corruption and inequality has been in rise there. Of late the government has been more controlled by the ethnic Drukpas while the private sector is falling more to the remaining Gurkha population. The Gurkha are sure to ask for more inclusion in the Governance in days ahead.

This is over and above the Bhutanese Refugee problem. More than 100 thousand Nepali speaking Gurkhas are living as political refugees in Nepal and are now sent in third country settlement to US, New Zealand and other countries. This may be good for refugees but for Bhutan, this can only be immediate relief. Once the Bhutanese settle in these countries, they are sure to lobby for more democratic and inclusive Bhutan.

-- Burma has its problems. Junta has been ruling with Military prowess and it is not going to remain for long. The people are exploited and they are in revolution. So more serious problems is pending.

So now with so much happening around India, can India become a Superpower? The problematic neighbors can be easily taken to act in favor of India by puppetizing the government. But equally probable is other powers puppetizing Nepalese government and made to act against India. This can hurt India much more if this happens. India and Nepal has very close traditional relations from the cultural and religious similarity. And a anti-India Nepal can be a anti-Iraq Kuwait or anti-US Cuba or anti-Russia Gorgia.

And having a puppet government in Nepal can serve little cause for India. Nepal can hardly be used against any other powers like China. The Himalayas block the possibility. The benefit that Nepal can give to India can easily be achieved from Kashmir or Arunachal Pradesh. So no added advantage in having a puppet.
I have always respected India for respecting sovereigneity of its neighbors. It has given away Independence to Bangladesh after winning it from Pakistan. And History makes Indian intention very clear. But few people still doubt. Let me analyse the possibility of Indian occupation of Nepal and its aftermath.
India can never annex Nepal for various reasons:
1. Huge Gurkha (Nepali speaking) population in India will not like it and may turn against India.
2. There are chances Indian Gurkha turn against India as they have marital and cultural relations with Nepalese.
3. Nepal in India will make a huge Nepali speaking people in India. From Kashmir to Nagaland (including Darzeeling, Sikkim and Bhutan), there will be a virtual belt of Nepali people. This may create a increased Gorkhaland movement which may turn being a great disaster.
4. Any attempt to annex Nepal will not be tolerated by China. It may well bring two giants at War.
5. International Image that India has today will be lost.
6. Nepal in India will bring more problems like increased Agad, Tharu and Maithili speaking people. Thus will bring the Nepali Madesh issues here, which may turn to divide Bihar into Mithila, Agad and Bhojpur.
7. Nepal is pre-dominantly Communist and Nepal in India can never be good for Indian Congress or BJP, two major Indian parties.
8. Nepal has good army and they are sure to give a good resistance to block any such move.

So now, when there is no chance of takeover and no gain of puppetization. The stable and prosperous Nepal can only benefit India. Hopefully once Nepal gets stable and good economy, it will be able to end any terrorism acts going on through Nepal, which Delhi has been pointing for long.

Maoist on this plane has so many benefits to give to India.
1. They are going to be only power in Nepal. Thus India will not have to many powers and create confusion in its foreign policy. This will increase trust among the governments as well as the general public.
2. Maoist government has promised to work on economic agenda. This will be very beneficial to India than a Nepali Government working on Political agenda to save their vested interest.
3. India can look to work close with Nepal Maoist to end Maoist movement in India.
4. Nepal Maoist has been very strict in dealing with irregularities. They have adopted violent means too to control them. So in days ahead, Nepal is set to have low corruption and Terrorism activities. India can only consider itself lucky here.
5. Maoist have welcome Indian investment in Nepal in big way. This can be used by Indian companies to tap Nepali and Chinese Market. Power Sector has already been eagerly looked by Indian Business conglomerate with much interest. Now Infra-structure, Cement, Petroleum, Retail, Telecom etc can be other sectors waiting huge Indian investments.
6. Bihar, UP and Bengal has been developing slow and has been creating lots of problems to the Central Government initiative of quick economic development. A positive and economically active Nepal will better serve the Indian Government here.
7. A Economically and socially powerful Nepal will defend itself from external influences and the chances of Nepal being used against India ends.
8. Nepal Maoist or any other party will never go pro-China. It is simply not possible when most Nepalese have marital and cultural ties with Indian people. So at worst, they can be non Pro-India. This means a fair Nepal and non-corrupt politicians.
9. India will save millions of rupees and lot many higher education seats, which the corrupt government is believed to be taking from India in the name of remaining pro-India. This has hardly benefited India. One side it was direct loss of money and education seats, which could have been better used to feed poor Indians and giving them access to quality education.
Other side, this has created a sense of doubt in Nepali public. They see this as wrong Indian intentions, which in reality has nothing to do with intention. I see this more of a habit than intention. Indian Government has been providing help to Nepalese through Nepal Government and corrupt government has been eating all these. So India has been losing from all sides here. This may end now.

Short Summary:
There may be some unease at the start dealing with Maoist government but certainly Maoist Landslide Victory has all good for India.

Update on 19th April. Follow up reading:
1. Interview with Dr. Baburam Bhattarai
2. From Revolution to Crisis Management form Nepali Times
3. Views from The Hindu
4. Reuters on Maoist Win

Update on 20th April. Follow up reading.
Bibek Poudel on Nepal Maoists and the CA Election Aftermath

Cross Border Terrorism Increasing - But Shall we close Indo-Nepal Border?

I don't see Terrorism as any big problem to force us to be closed doors. And most of it is not targeted against each other. There are hardly any elements in Nepal who want to terrorize India and vice versa. The threat is about third country terrorists entering the duo, from Bangladesh or Pakistan. This calls for better understanding and co-operation between Indian and Nepali authorities. And certainly Visa implementation is not the solution.

Open borders have many economic gains. India is one of the world's largest market and it has the potential of being world's second largest market very soon. The spending culture of India is a great opportunity for us. It is best served when there is more people to people contact.

Consider the case of launch of Wai Wai in India by CG Foods in India. It got a huge success, thanks to huge brand ambassadors, all Nepali Living in India or visiting India.

(European Union - Changes in Real Wages and Productivity. This clearly shows open border and greater co-operation increases productivity keeping real wages low. Good opportunity for companies to tap and grow.)

Not to forget is a close cultural and social linkages. This social linkages has benefited both sides for time immemorial. We are possibly the only two Hindu dominated society in the world and that has opened huge cultural tourism opportunity for both sides. And Indian tourists are the most spending tourist in the world, they have surpassed Americans recently. That calls for better hospitality towards the Indians to uplift our National Economy.

Co-operation between India is increasing and we can only benefit from it. Both are now economic powers hungry to rule the economic world and both will hardly try to contain Nepal in anyway. They are co-operating in Global Leadership and same time fighting for leadership in Asia. We have to learn to live and grow with them.

I would favor no visa but id card system between Nepal and China too. That will open more opportunity for us. Not to forget is our poor performing manufacturing economy and a small market. Now I don't see any possibility of Nepal being a manufacturing hub in any future course as we can never produce cheaper than our giant neighbors. And there is no necessity too. We have huge potential to remain a market economy with service focus. For this open border with India is a huge plus, which is still not exploited by us. Let us not go back but move further and tap the opportunity.

I have said whatever I had to. What's you take? Please do not forget to share as comment.

Indian stand in Iran Nuclear Issue.(III)

US has already chooses India to make a strong line US-Isreal-India-Japan line to control the whole world. It may benefit India in many terms but the path wont be so simple that it looks. When India is below a trillion $ country US may want India to develop but getting countries closer as enemies will have a ever-lasting influence. Look Cuba for US. India now has an option of choosing US-Japan alliance or Chino-Russian alliance. Chino-Russian alliance seems to fit the indian interest much more than the US-Japan alliance as Russia is more clsoer to India then to China. China being the strongest of the three, will lead but Indo-Russian interest will always be taken care of. But the US-Japan alliance is a bit risky one. They can drop India at any point they like as the importance of India to them is minimal. The most important thing is in case of any forthcoming clash India will be the biggest loser as US is far and whatever happens most happens to India. But if the Russia-China-India forms a strong coalition then it will directly become a second pole in the world making the world multipolar. Any clash taking place will not damage India much as Pakistan and other US allies in these regions are more loyal to China, which is seen by latest actions.
The race starts from Iran. Because after Iran issue US will make India do manyn other things in its favor for the nuclear deal to pass from the congress. Then India will reach much farther and coming back may not be possible. Saddham once took the US side and end up in the mess taking whole into a battlefield. AlSo, with the second largest muslim population India going against Iran may not help India in any way, but may lead to internal problems as well.

The sugesstion not to bring Indian muslim in the debate is ruthless. Its always the interest of the peeple that a country considers while making any change in foreign policy. Like US support for Isreal. India has paid heavily in supporting Sri Lankan govt against LTTE despite having huge Tamil population. UK and Spain has paid for their support of Iraq war.

So this step must be taken carefully because the future steps must go along with it. In retrieving back neither of two sides will be gained. And going forward may be very difficult for a diversified country like India. The best way is to abstain like Rissia, China and Pakistan did if India doesnot like to upset US. Supporting the referendum is just the poor governance.

Indian stand in Iran Nuclear Issue.(II)

India must support Iran to defend its own position in the world scenerio.
1. Unlike Taliban, the present govt of Iran is a elected one. It has broad public support, and is committed to democratic rule . When Isreal talkes freely considering attack on the Iranian Nuclear sites like it did in the Iraq, then its normal for the Iran to comment on the destruction of Isreal. When Musharaf said of using all the weapons including nuclear if the kargil war goes to the full fledge war, I remember Indian defence chief talking of the destruction of Pakistan within a week of the first use of its nuclear missile.

2. India and its neighbors, Bhutan, Nepal and Bangladesh are very rich in water resources as well. This can be used as the ultimate cource of electricity, but the petro fuel necessity if always there, and its increasing. US congress has not passed the bill yet and is testing the indians.

3. I ran has never gone against the Indian candidature as well, while US has.

4. Iran has been a good indian ally both as a liable trade partner and an ally in international trade negotiations. The interest of the two countries match while the needs and the interest of US adn India do not match. The alliance may not move smoothly ahead.

5. There is deal between a lion and a goat. We should always focus on the deal and partnerchip with the equal partners where the pressure is minimum and can act on the sole aim of national interest. The US is the hyperpower of the world and miving with it is not going to be easy.

6. US is considering the possibility of using India against the China-Russia alliance. This will be dangerous for India. When the world is expecting that by 2040 the world will have different world top ten economies .... India, Brazil, Russia, China climbing and also there is possibility for Pakistan, South Africa, South Korea ..etc climbing to the spots after the top ten replacing the traditional power economies. This has to taken in mind. If Iran withstands the present pressures and escapes it will itself turn making into the big league.
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7. The Iran's contribution is same what the countries like Nepal, Bhutan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka is doing for India and its consuming. Iran is a huge market for Indian companies and India is enjoying a trade surplus with Iran.

8. Why US always supports Isreal?? Its simply because it has huge jew population man. The isreal lobby there is strong and it may turn the political scenerio else. It not the matter of taking anyone's side, it about why hurting someone. India believes that Iran has to be within the IAEA and should work there and it must not be referred to UNSC, then why vote against Iran. Everyone knows that the power politics is playing the final role and Iran has not done any wrong. As a sovereign nation it has its right to have nuclear power, but west believes that it is aimed towwards them. This is ruthless.

9. yeh india and other NAM countries were the USSR allies. India even helped russia with food supplies at the time of Cold war. The reason was the return for the help in the survival of India. When US once was considering invasion of India it was Russia who sent one of its 3 nuclear submarine to India. This makes India and Russia the only countries sharing the nuclear weapon. India is now a potential ally of Russia and believes in Russia that Russia has gained in many years of support. Iran may have some for the Indians but its loosing that. Many weaker countries are watching India closely and if India goes against Iran it will loose the confidence of thoese countries as well.

10. Iran is one of the most responsible country in the world as is India, Brazil, South Africa, having clean history. The focus of India and Iran is both in economy and defence but the other two sole focus is on economy. Iran is much like India and India needs to support it to support its own cause. India must work hard to ensure its peaceful rise as is China doing, and develop neither like Isreal nor like Japan or Germany, but rather like US itself. A completely peaceful rise.

Indian stand in Iran Nuclear Issue.

The message is clear Manmohan Singh govt is a weak govt which could not take on the US pressure and end up voting against Iran. The countries like Pakistan and Isreal are more prone to use the Nuclear weapon than Iran and Pakistan is more active in producing and financing terrorist activities across the world, says the same western analysts. The countries like North Korea and Iran has never been aggressive against any country. Their history is as clear as that of Indians, and most importantly Iran is a Shia country where the terrorism across the world is headed by the sunni segments. The sunni segments also has the cause for their fight due to the Palestine cause, and now the attack on Iraq.

The message is clear to the world that India is getting away from its neutral foreigh policy towards the US alliance. It is same like India breaking the G20 alliance for its benefit in WTO fight. Last some years has been very active in achiving its national interest but its loosing its key friends. Like Brazil, South Africa, Malaysia and others of the NAM moment in WTO. Now it has lost Iran. The US alliance may be dangerous for India in future being second Isreal in the world map surrounded by the enemies. China, Russia, Malaysia, Cuba,Venezuela etc could resist the US pressure but India could not inspite of the history of being neutral for always. India was one of the most respected country in the NAM moment and despite its internal corrupt politics India has one of the most rebust foreign policy, but now India has lost it.

The vote against Iran and the speech related to the vote saying "India voted to get some more time for Iran. We know that Iran is committed to the IAEA and we respect its rights for the Nuclear Technology for energy." This was the saying of the India's Foreign minister after voting in favour of referendum referring Iran to the Security council. The left parties are right this time but noone listens to them. May India come back and not lose Iran for always.

1. India has forgotton the history of all those cases where US supproted the country in many ways in the begenning and after turned towards it. Iraq is an simple example.

2. Iran is a country which had once voiced that in case of Indo-Pak war it would take the Indian side.

3. Iran is dominantly a shia country and India has a huge shia population. Going against Iran may be seen as going against them.

4. India will have huge energy deficit by 2010 and Iran-Pak-India gas pipeline can solve it significantly but Iran may get off the project. Iran has other huge market at his disposal, China. This will take China upper than India.

5. US congress has a series of test before India gets full benefit of all the Nuclear deals and following all may not be possible, and unable of fulfilling one may end up India getting nothing.

6. India will need the support of many NAM countries if it wants to get into UNSC as permanent member. The Iran issue may decrease the vote for India. US till now has not supported and is the only country in the G5 not supporting India's candidature which shows how serious is the US.

7. The cost of seperating military and civilian Nuclear is huge according to some experts and before this done US will not go for full cooperation in the Nuclear Suppliers group. The full benefit from Nuclear Deal is a distant dream for India.

8. Pakistan being the China's closest ally has been named as the US Non-Nato ally, where is India near that. India has lost even the confidence of its traditional allys Russia, Brazil, South Africa and Iran.

India needs to look all these issues and can play a game. While Manmohan govt has the support of left parties it could use it as its strength to get the help withuot much damage to the national integrity and neutral international policy. But rather it has always seen left parties as the weakness and i think now the time has come for the left parties to get Manmohan down. so that the forthcoming govt can rectify the steps.

Indo-Nepal Relationship

Now Indo-Nepal relation is at a historic low. The royal takeover of all executive power in nepal without the indian consent has antagonised india more than the nepalese public. india is more concerned of Chinese involvement than the king and has applied every possible diplomatic pressure to the king but it has failed to do any major change. India has to well analyse whether the royal failure will be beneficial to India, Nepal and the World.
More than sixty percent of rural areas is under Maoist control now and in case of royal failure, Nepal is sure to become a Communist Republic. Till now the maoist top class are seen as good leaders and has hope that they will do much for the nation once they come in power. But in the world hardly any revolutionary group has ruled successfully because one person can do only one work to its best. It is more likely that even the Maoist may turn to the same class as their democratic counterparts. In the capitalist world even if maoist work positively the result wont be as good as expected. Socialist Nepal be no better then battered Nepal for India. If for the reason India tried to put democratic government then Nepal will be a bigger disaster for India then Iraq for US as the democratic parties have lost their ground in Nepal. The moves of the UPA government taken till now were the responsibility of a good neighbor having very close cultural ties but future moves must be taken with more analysis and care. Nepal has always been a close ally of India nad till now almost every government there has tried to fulfill the Indian govt interest while this govt. has choosec the other way becoming close to China. The step has to be throughly analysed, especially the motive behind choosing China. In the condition when the maoist has called for direct talks with the king, the royal takeover is logical step. Indian efforts to defame the king may not only hurt the monarch but may end the century long Indo-Nepal friendship. India may thus end up losing a close ally and a neighboring market.
There are many issues that Indians have to study deeply than blaming the Nepalese govt. and teh masses. Some Indian govt. officials often critisize Nepal of harboring ISI agents which is in sharp contrast to the Nepalese govt. commitment. There may be some loop holes in implementation but these issues must be taken to the table not to the press. No public wants to see an outsider critisizing their country or their govt. no matter how worse it is governed. There are may weaknesses of the Indian side that has hurt the nepalese sentiments thus increasing anti-indianism in Nepal, and it is blunder made by Indian authorities to blame ISI for this. Here are some wweaknesses that I have seen:
1). It is always good to support a system than indicidual but India has always favoured G.P.Koirala and his party.
2). Almost all the scholarship seats provided to Nepal through Indian Embassy are filled by unfair means. The politicians and the bureaucratic heads send their children or relatives in these seats. For these general Nepali public believes that Indians are trying to puppetize the Nepali govt. by offering such private privilazes to the ruling class.
3). India has never been serious in solving Bhutanese Refugee problem. It were the Indians to take Bhutanese to Nepal (Indians not only provided free transit but also supported with free vehicles) and now India remarks it as a bilateral probelm between Bhutan and Nepal. Indians were the main hurdle in the peaceful refugee march. It is well known fact that active Indian involvement is necessary to solve this problem but India is seperating itself. The motive is not understood.
4). Indians are never serious in solving border issues with Nepal.
5). The trade agreements are violated by the Indian side frequently in a condition when the Indian goods are enjoying the highest privilage for free movement into Nepal.
6). Indian government interfairs very often in internal matters which is against the sentiment of the sovereign public.

These are some of the weaknesses that indian side has in their relation with Nepal and now its time to work to eliminate them. There is no struggle now for the search of producers but the real struggle is for markets. If India doesnot help, Nepal will get help from US, China, EU or Japan. Successful engagement of Nepal crises is a real challenge for the indian govt. India has to overcome this without much damage to become a regional power. The best way to solve this problem is to adopt non-interference strictly and go for immediate solution of all bilateral and regional issues. Indian Embassy is seen in Nepal as center of corruption along with the Pakistani Embassy and reformation in bilateral ties must start from there.