Madhesi-Pahadi Conflict : Rise of Chure Bhawar

Rights have been given to the Madhesi people. Both the President and Vice President are from the same community. This is in result of the Madhesi movement that happened after the fall of Monarchs led by MJF, and supported by all the Terai based parties.

The movement went forward and Mr. Vice President went ahead taking oath in Hindi, where Hindi language is neither his mother tongue nor amongst national languages of Nepal. This has clearly undermine the national sovereignty of the citizens of Nepal who has voted him to power.

This has hurt India and MJF the most.

I am sure, neither Indian congress nor the Indian Govt is in a mood to puppetize Nepali govt. They very well know any such attempt will backfire, specially when China lies on the other side.
India in no way should have any hand in this activity. It is just the immaturity of our Mr. Vice President to take such step. Today's India is a Economic India and Nepal's development is in line with Indian interest, where in days Nepal can partner India's growth by providing huge energy from Mega Hydro Projects. And we all should know how much important is power for India now when Indian govt has kept its life at stake to do Nuclear Pact with the US.

Regarding MJF, they have now lost everything they have gained except the few constituencies they won in the election. MJF is slowly being dominated old opportunistic politicians of NC, UML, RPP; and the actual revolutionaries are getting sidelined.

They have also lost their agenda of fighting for Madhesi rights and moved to hurting other communities. They are now the vocal attackers of Pahade community and culture. They don't hesitate saying gate pales to the Gurkhas. They say that the Nepali Marwaris are not Nepalis, and they believe other communities in Madesh like Tharu, Dhimal and Rajbangsi dont need their identity in New Nepal.

To answer all these questions, Chure Bhawar, which was one sidelined by the Pahades to give way for progressive and national parties like Maoists, NC and UML, has now come up. Now Mainali of Chure seems to be gaining ground and the strikes against the VP has been organized by them.

Now, its the real test of NC, UML and Maoists to keep people with them. To do this both Forum and Chure needs to be sidelined, and communal politics needs to be ended.

Its the test for these parties, but its the responsibilities of all of us to keep social harmony in the country.

God Bless Us. Yet Again.

President and Vice President! Did Maoist Lose?

Maoist's candidates have lost both the President and Vice President posts in Nepal. This shows that Maoist are really raw for the parliamentary game. They have been played well by the old Nepal parties and sidelined.

Maoist are seen as a lost power today. And they are going to be in opposition in coming govt too. But that can be a ideal position for Maoist to be to safe guard their long term political interest.

With Dr. Ram Baran Yadav as President, Madhesi forces have achieved the electoral victory but have faced an ideological defeat. Dr saab is a Maithili Brahmin (from so called Madhesi community) and is a vocal supporter of one Nepal like most of the Nepali Congress and UML Leaders.
Also, NC and UML is the party who are not convinced for Federal Nepal too, leave the One Madesh, One Pahad concept.

This is sure to bring MJF is jeopardy in the coming days, as they will now be fighting with NC, UML and MJF (itself) alliance for One Madesh. While Maoist will see the drama from outside.
Maoist can play both the swords now. They can play against MJF is MJF sacrifices the One Madesh demand; and can play against NC and UML for Pahadi vote if MJF went otherwise. This clearly indicates a win-win situation for the emerging forces.

I see this drama for the first president as a strategic victory for the Maoist too. Nepal has a majority of communist people and it always had atleast for last 50 yrs. And this is not likely to change anytime soon.
The presidential election has brought three parties together leading towards the democratic alliance. This will hurt the image of UML and the migrants likely join MAoists.

Rest will have to watch!

What can Nepal Maoist Win mean to India?

I have been hearing about Delhi's uneasiness about Nepal Maoist win. Delhi seem to have been overly attached with NC and UML in the past days and more than Maoist win, the two parties loss has been a greater headache. This always happens to any ally and has happened this time to all the NC and UML allies inside and outside Nepal.

There was mistake on the part of India (China and US too) for not understanding the increased influence of Maoist in Nepal. They have severely underestimated. But does this mean problem for India?

Certainly NOT. India is the biggest democracy and a republic state for long. Indian democracy has been very inclusive and had been successful. It is one of the best managed economy now and a serious contender for the future superpower. And the biggest challenge for India had always been the unstable neighbors. Let us talk about the neighbors now.

-- Pakistan has huge internal problems from the fundamentalism to terrorism.
-- Sri Lanka has been suffering LTTE crisis which took the island country from one of the Asian stars in 70s to one poor struggling state now.
-- Bangladesh has been getting unstable with passing time and the political stability is getting away.
-- Bhutan has done moderately successful ethnic cleaning exercise and have been able to bring economy in good note, but this can hardly be stable. The corruption and inequality has been in rise there. Of late the government has been more controlled by the ethnic Drukpas while the private sector is falling more to the remaining Gurkha population. The Gurkha are sure to ask for more inclusion in the Governance in days ahead.

This is over and above the Bhutanese Refugee problem. More than 100 thousand Nepali speaking Gurkhas are living as political refugees in Nepal and are now sent in third country settlement to US, New Zealand and other countries. This may be good for refugees but for Bhutan, this can only be immediate relief. Once the Bhutanese settle in these countries, they are sure to lobby for more democratic and inclusive Bhutan.

-- Burma has its problems. Junta has been ruling with Military prowess and it is not going to remain for long. The people are exploited and they are in revolution. So more serious problems is pending.

So now with so much happening around India, can India become a Superpower? The problematic neighbors can be easily taken to act in favor of India by puppetizing the government. But equally probable is other powers puppetizing Nepalese government and made to act against India. This can hurt India much more if this happens. India and Nepal has very close traditional relations from the cultural and religious similarity. And a anti-India Nepal can be a anti-Iraq Kuwait or anti-US Cuba or anti-Russia Gorgia.

And having a puppet government in Nepal can serve little cause for India. Nepal can hardly be used against any other powers like China. The Himalayas block the possibility. The benefit that Nepal can give to India can easily be achieved from Kashmir or Arunachal Pradesh. So no added advantage in having a puppet.
I have always respected India for respecting sovereigneity of its neighbors. It has given away Independence to Bangladesh after winning it from Pakistan. And History makes Indian intention very clear. But few people still doubt. Let me analyse the possibility of Indian occupation of Nepal and its aftermath.
India can never annex Nepal for various reasons:
1. Huge Gurkha (Nepali speaking) population in India will not like it and may turn against India.
2. There are chances Indian Gurkha turn against India as they have marital and cultural relations with Nepalese.
3. Nepal in India will make a huge Nepali speaking people in India. From Kashmir to Nagaland (including Darzeeling, Sikkim and Bhutan), there will be a virtual belt of Nepali people. This may create a increased Gorkhaland movement which may turn being a great disaster.
4. Any attempt to annex Nepal will not be tolerated by China. It may well bring two giants at War.
5. International Image that India has today will be lost.
6. Nepal in India will bring more problems like increased Agad, Tharu and Maithili speaking people. Thus will bring the Nepali Madesh issues here, which may turn to divide Bihar into Mithila, Agad and Bhojpur.
7. Nepal is pre-dominantly Communist and Nepal in India can never be good for Indian Congress or BJP, two major Indian parties.
8. Nepal has good army and they are sure to give a good resistance to block any such move.

So now, when there is no chance of takeover and no gain of puppetization. The stable and prosperous Nepal can only benefit India. Hopefully once Nepal gets stable and good economy, it will be able to end any terrorism acts going on through Nepal, which Delhi has been pointing for long.

Maoist on this plane has so many benefits to give to India.
1. They are going to be only power in Nepal. Thus India will not have to many powers and create confusion in its foreign policy. This will increase trust among the governments as well as the general public.
2. Maoist government has promised to work on economic agenda. This will be very beneficial to India than a Nepali Government working on Political agenda to save their vested interest.
3. India can look to work close with Nepal Maoist to end Maoist movement in India.
4. Nepal Maoist has been very strict in dealing with irregularities. They have adopted violent means too to control them. So in days ahead, Nepal is set to have low corruption and Terrorism activities. India can only consider itself lucky here.
5. Maoist have welcome Indian investment in Nepal in big way. This can be used by Indian companies to tap Nepali and Chinese Market. Power Sector has already been eagerly looked by Indian Business conglomerate with much interest. Now Infra-structure, Cement, Petroleum, Retail, Telecom etc can be other sectors waiting huge Indian investments.
6. Bihar, UP and Bengal has been developing slow and has been creating lots of problems to the Central Government initiative of quick economic development. A positive and economically active Nepal will better serve the Indian Government here.
7. A Economically and socially powerful Nepal will defend itself from external influences and the chances of Nepal being used against India ends.
8. Nepal Maoist or any other party will never go pro-China. It is simply not possible when most Nepalese have marital and cultural ties with Indian people. So at worst, they can be non Pro-India. This means a fair Nepal and non-corrupt politicians.
9. India will save millions of rupees and lot many higher education seats, which the corrupt government is believed to be taking from India in the name of remaining pro-India. This has hardly benefited India. One side it was direct loss of money and education seats, which could have been better used to feed poor Indians and giving them access to quality education.
Other side, this has created a sense of doubt in Nepali public. They see this as wrong Indian intentions, which in reality has nothing to do with intention. I see this more of a habit than intention. Indian Government has been providing help to Nepalese through Nepal Government and corrupt government has been eating all these. So India has been losing from all sides here. This may end now.

Short Summary:
There may be some unease at the start dealing with Maoist government but certainly Maoist Landslide Victory has all good for India.

Update on 19th April. Follow up reading:
1. Interview with Dr. Baburam Bhattarai
2. From Revolution to Crisis Management form Nepali Times
3. Views from The Hindu
4. Reuters on Maoist Win

Update on 20th April. Follow up reading.
Bibek Poudel on Nepal Maoists and the CA Election Aftermath

10 Reasons to Vote for Maoist in CA Elections

1. Maoist have done what several parties have tried for so long but have always comprimised for the leaders personal gains. I am talking about throwing Monarchy. Nepal never had democracy neither in 2007 or 2046. Now, we are atleast moving towards the right direction.

2. Social Equality is another concern. Many dalits and janjatis were treated low, and I have seen them with my eyes. Maoist have taught them to stand for their right.

3. Maoist is the first party in Nepal who has brought economic discussion in the political table. Baburam and others have been constantly trying to bring it to main agenda of governance. (Nepali Congress and CPN UML have always played a political role causing failure).

4. Corruption has decreased with the Maoist coming up. I have seen this in many areas. May be you guys have felt too.One of my experience is talking huge amount of money for giving admission in special courses like Environment, Computer Science etc in TU colleges by Student Union. This was prevalent earlier. But now it has almost come to an end.

5. Ingenuine Business is another common concept in Nepal. Many businessman run many different backside business in Nepal. They earn a lot and also from the front end business, many business man dont show profit evading taxes. This culture is attacked by YCL and it is a genuine cause.

6. It is the Iron that cut Iron. So when all national and international forces attack maoist, it is not fair to call them not to counter attack. They are aggressive and that is what I love about them. No war has ever been won by Defence. And NC and UML have always been defensive; sometime because of Royalists and now of Maoists.

7. Regional Settlement views. I must say, Maoist have done quite appreciable work by coming up with Regional Segmentation which no other party could dare to.

8. Only party equidistant between India and China. We need this for the continued and suatainable progress.

9. I see only two leaders in Nepal, one G. P. Koirala and another Puspa Kamal Dahal (Prachanda). It can be well noted in the polutical discussions lately.

10. May be bad, but they are the most good. This is very important point. We have several parties on board but they are much worse than what Maoist are. And it is a proved point. No other political parties could stand for national cause and for progressive agenda, then why not give a chance for Maoist too. May be they will pass the test!!

I have poured my views. Now, its with you to give your views as comment. I will love to see your agreement or disagreement with my views.