What can Nepal Maoist Win mean to India?

I have been hearing about Delhi's uneasiness about Nepal Maoist win. Delhi seem to have been overly attached with NC and UML in the past days and more than Maoist win, the two parties loss has been a greater headache. This always happens to any ally and has happened this time to all the NC and UML allies inside and outside Nepal.

There was mistake on the part of India (China and US too) for not understanding the increased influence of Maoist in Nepal. They have severely underestimated. But does this mean problem for India?

Certainly NOT. India is the biggest democracy and a republic state for long. Indian democracy has been very inclusive and had been successful. It is one of the best managed economy now and a serious contender for the future superpower. And the biggest challenge for India had always been the unstable neighbors. Let us talk about the neighbors now.

-- Pakistan has huge internal problems from the fundamentalism to terrorism.
-- Sri Lanka has been suffering LTTE crisis which took the island country from one of the Asian stars in 70s to one poor struggling state now.
-- Bangladesh has been getting unstable with passing time and the political stability is getting away.
-- Bhutan has done moderately successful ethnic cleaning exercise and have been able to bring economy in good note, but this can hardly be stable. The corruption and inequality has been in rise there. Of late the government has been more controlled by the ethnic Drukpas while the private sector is falling more to the remaining Gurkha population. The Gurkha are sure to ask for more inclusion in the Governance in days ahead.

This is over and above the Bhutanese Refugee problem. More than 100 thousand Nepali speaking Gurkhas are living as political refugees in Nepal and are now sent in third country settlement to US, New Zealand and other countries. This may be good for refugees but for Bhutan, this can only be immediate relief. Once the Bhutanese settle in these countries, they are sure to lobby for more democratic and inclusive Bhutan.

-- Burma has its problems. Junta has been ruling with Military prowess and it is not going to remain for long. The people are exploited and they are in revolution. So more serious problems is pending.

So now with so much happening around India, can India become a Superpower? The problematic neighbors can be easily taken to act in favor of India by puppetizing the government. But equally probable is other powers puppetizing Nepalese government and made to act against India. This can hurt India much more if this happens. India and Nepal has very close traditional relations from the cultural and religious similarity. And a anti-India Nepal can be a anti-Iraq Kuwait or anti-US Cuba or anti-Russia Gorgia.

And having a puppet government in Nepal can serve little cause for India. Nepal can hardly be used against any other powers like China. The Himalayas block the possibility. The benefit that Nepal can give to India can easily be achieved from Kashmir or Arunachal Pradesh. So no added advantage in having a puppet.
I have always respected India for respecting sovereigneity of its neighbors. It has given away Independence to Bangladesh after winning it from Pakistan. And History makes Indian intention very clear. But few people still doubt. Let me analyse the possibility of Indian occupation of Nepal and its aftermath.
India can never annex Nepal for various reasons:
1. Huge Gurkha (Nepali speaking) population in India will not like it and may turn against India.
2. There are chances Indian Gurkha turn against India as they have marital and cultural relations with Nepalese.
3. Nepal in India will make a huge Nepali speaking people in India. From Kashmir to Nagaland (including Darzeeling, Sikkim and Bhutan), there will be a virtual belt of Nepali people. This may create a increased Gorkhaland movement which may turn being a great disaster.
4. Any attempt to annex Nepal will not be tolerated by China. It may well bring two giants at War.
5. International Image that India has today will be lost.
6. Nepal in India will bring more problems like increased Agad, Tharu and Maithili speaking people. Thus will bring the Nepali Madesh issues here, which may turn to divide Bihar into Mithila, Agad and Bhojpur.
7. Nepal is pre-dominantly Communist and Nepal in India can never be good for Indian Congress or BJP, two major Indian parties.
8. Nepal has good army and they are sure to give a good resistance to block any such move.

So now, when there is no chance of takeover and no gain of puppetization. The stable and prosperous Nepal can only benefit India. Hopefully once Nepal gets stable and good economy, it will be able to end any terrorism acts going on through Nepal, which Delhi has been pointing for long.

Maoist on this plane has so many benefits to give to India.
1. They are going to be only power in Nepal. Thus India will not have to many powers and create confusion in its foreign policy. This will increase trust among the governments as well as the general public.
2. Maoist government has promised to work on economic agenda. This will be very beneficial to India than a Nepali Government working on Political agenda to save their vested interest.
3. India can look to work close with Nepal Maoist to end Maoist movement in India.
4. Nepal Maoist has been very strict in dealing with irregularities. They have adopted violent means too to control them. So in days ahead, Nepal is set to have low corruption and Terrorism activities. India can only consider itself lucky here.
5. Maoist have welcome Indian investment in Nepal in big way. This can be used by Indian companies to tap Nepali and Chinese Market. Power Sector has already been eagerly looked by Indian Business conglomerate with much interest. Now Infra-structure, Cement, Petroleum, Retail, Telecom etc can be other sectors waiting huge Indian investments.
6. Bihar, UP and Bengal has been developing slow and has been creating lots of problems to the Central Government initiative of quick economic development. A positive and economically active Nepal will better serve the Indian Government here.
7. A Economically and socially powerful Nepal will defend itself from external influences and the chances of Nepal being used against India ends.
8. Nepal Maoist or any other party will never go pro-China. It is simply not possible when most Nepalese have marital and cultural ties with Indian people. So at worst, they can be non Pro-India. This means a fair Nepal and non-corrupt politicians.
9. India will save millions of rupees and lot many higher education seats, which the corrupt government is believed to be taking from India in the name of remaining pro-India. This has hardly benefited India. One side it was direct loss of money and education seats, which could have been better used to feed poor Indians and giving them access to quality education.
Other side, this has created a sense of doubt in Nepali public. They see this as wrong Indian intentions, which in reality has nothing to do with intention. I see this more of a habit than intention. Indian Government has been providing help to Nepalese through Nepal Government and corrupt government has been eating all these. So India has been losing from all sides here. This may end now.

Short Summary:
There may be some unease at the start dealing with Maoist government but certainly Maoist Landslide Victory has all good for India.

Update on 19th April. Follow up reading:
1. Interview with Dr. Baburam Bhattarai
2. From Revolution to Crisis Management form Nepali Times
3. Views from The Hindu
4. Reuters on Maoist Win

Update on 20th April. Follow up reading.
Bibek Poudel on Nepal Maoists and the CA Election Aftermath

Cross Border Terrorism Increasing - But Shall we close Indo-Nepal Border?

I don't see Terrorism as any big problem to force us to be closed doors. And most of it is not targeted against each other. There are hardly any elements in Nepal who want to terrorize India and vice versa. The threat is about third country terrorists entering the duo, from Bangladesh or Pakistan. This calls for better understanding and co-operation between Indian and Nepali authorities. And certainly Visa implementation is not the solution.

Open borders have many economic gains. India is one of the world's largest market and it has the potential of being world's second largest market very soon. The spending culture of India is a great opportunity for us. It is best served when there is more people to people contact.

Consider the case of launch of Wai Wai in India by CG Foods in India. It got a huge success, thanks to huge brand ambassadors, all Nepali Living in India or visiting India.

(European Union - Changes in Real Wages and Productivity. This clearly shows open border and greater co-operation increases productivity keeping real wages low. Good opportunity for companies to tap and grow.)

Not to forget is a close cultural and social linkages. This social linkages has benefited both sides for time immemorial. We are possibly the only two Hindu dominated society in the world and that has opened huge cultural tourism opportunity for both sides. And Indian tourists are the most spending tourist in the world, they have surpassed Americans recently. That calls for better hospitality towards the Indians to uplift our National Economy.

Co-operation between India is increasing and we can only benefit from it. Both are now economic powers hungry to rule the economic world and both will hardly try to contain Nepal in anyway. They are co-operating in Global Leadership and same time fighting for leadership in Asia. We have to learn to live and grow with them.

I would favor no visa but id card system between Nepal and China too. That will open more opportunity for us. Not to forget is our poor performing manufacturing economy and a small market. Now I don't see any possibility of Nepal being a manufacturing hub in any future course as we can never produce cheaper than our giant neighbors. And there is no necessity too. We have huge potential to remain a market economy with service focus. For this open border with India is a huge plus, which is still not exploited by us. Let us not go back but move further and tap the opportunity.

I have said whatever I had to. What's you take? Please do not forget to share as comment.

India - Favourite Work Destination for Nepalese Engineers

A Poll on a Orkut Community - "Nepalese Engineers" have shown a changing trend among its members for favourite place to work. Let us look at the Poll Result (24 Responders).

Favourite Place to work for
1. India (45%)
2. Nepal (25%)
3. US (8%)
3. Asia Pacific, Asean (8%)
4. Europe (4%)
4. Japan (4%)
4. Middle East Asia (4%)
5. China (0%)
5. Others (0%)

US, UK and Australlia have remained favourite destinations are Nepalese Engineers for long time. But this poll has brought a unexpected result. There might be many biases with the poll like most of the community members to have studied in India. But even for most Nepali students doing Engineering in India, main aim had always been giving GRE and moving to US for MS. Then after MS most settled in US with a technical job.

A more important side of the poll result is the disinterest among the Engineers to work in China. While China is shaping the world with its economic growth for last three decades, it is yet to emerge as favourable work place.

As always, I welcome comment on the post. Cheers!!

10 Reasons to Vote for Maoist in CA Elections

1. Maoist have done what several parties have tried for so long but have always comprimised for the leaders personal gains. I am talking about throwing Monarchy. Nepal never had democracy neither in 2007 or 2046. Now, we are atleast moving towards the right direction.

2. Social Equality is another concern. Many dalits and janjatis were treated low, and I have seen them with my eyes. Maoist have taught them to stand for their right.

3. Maoist is the first party in Nepal who has brought economic discussion in the political table. Baburam and others have been constantly trying to bring it to main agenda of governance. (Nepali Congress and CPN UML have always played a political role causing failure).

4. Corruption has decreased with the Maoist coming up. I have seen this in many areas. May be you guys have felt too.One of my experience is talking huge amount of money for giving admission in special courses like Environment, Computer Science etc in TU colleges by Student Union. This was prevalent earlier. But now it has almost come to an end.

5. Ingenuine Business is another common concept in Nepal. Many businessman run many different backside business in Nepal. They earn a lot and also from the front end business, many business man dont show profit evading taxes. This culture is attacked by YCL and it is a genuine cause.

6. It is the Iron that cut Iron. So when all national and international forces attack maoist, it is not fair to call them not to counter attack. They are aggressive and that is what I love about them. No war has ever been won by Defence. And NC and UML have always been defensive; sometime because of Royalists and now of Maoists.

7. Regional Settlement views. I must say, Maoist have done quite appreciable work by coming up with Regional Segmentation which no other party could dare to.

8. Only party equidistant between India and China. We need this for the continued and suatainable progress.

9. I see only two leaders in Nepal, one G. P. Koirala and another Puspa Kamal Dahal (Prachanda). It can be well noted in the polutical discussions lately.

10. May be bad, but they are the most good. This is very important point. We have several parties on board but they are much worse than what Maoist are. And it is a proved point. No other political parties could stand for national cause and for progressive agenda, then why not give a chance for Maoist too. May be they will pass the test!!

I have poured my views. Now, its with you to give your views as comment. I will love to see your agreement or disagreement with my views.

Revenue Sharing Policy of Federal Nepal- Part I

By Chamatkaribaba

Nepal has since long plunged into a state of anarchy because of the failures of democratic institutions. These failures were because of mainly two reasons:

1) Because political leaders invested little time to save democratic institutions and;

2) There were targeted actions from autocratic and regressive forces, more particularly to blame is King and his coterie.

The second cause was lately realised by these political leaders and by that time, already, state of state was statelessness.
A lot of things happened after that mainly, People's Uprising in 2006, April and have put Democratic institutions back on track, if not democratic virtues. There are a lot of things those have to be done. The debate on political aspects of democracy; and state has received a lot of ink from various people from different walk of life. But, it seems that economic aspect of functioning of state has been completely shadowed.

This blog tries to provide a glimpse of what should happen on the economic aspects of New Nepal.
The recent news buzz is all about Federal State of Nepal. A lot of gangs and groups are fighting for that. People who belong to Terai Region, people from Janajatis, Dalits, Adivashis, Limbuwan people, Khumbuwan and people from Chure Bhawar area are fighting for federal democracy.
All seem to be agreeing on the need of federal state except its modalities how to form it. Some are voicing for Fully Proportional Election system and some are against it. Most of the Nepal's political debate is revolving around Constituent Assembly Election, its success.
Very few are debating on the issues of Fiscal Policy once Nepal becomes Federal State. This is very important for the sustenance of democracy, for the sustenance of state, for the sustenance of each federal province/county (by whatever name it is called) and for their progress.
This issue assumes significance because of Nepal's Geographical Location. All parts in Nepal do not earn same amount of revenue. The Terai, plain Region is more accessible by Roads and Transports. It is easier to do any kind of national and international business from that region. The Terai Region shares its boundary with India, with which Nepal has a maximum third country business. The goods made in Nepal are exported through Terai Region and goods imported in Nepal mostly come from this Terai Region.

Kakarbhitta, Biratnagar, Birgunj, Janakpur, Siraha, Bhairahawa, Butawal, and Mahendranagar are some of the towns in Nepal which has good Road Transport system with Indian Boarder Cities.

The Cereal, Paddy, Wheat, Oil and Gases, Salt, Clothes, Heavy Machinery, Transport related Gadgets, Clothes, and other stable food grains are mostly imported through this route and a little like Vanaspati Ghee, Noodles, Copper Wire are exported to India and via India to Bangladesh, Bhutan etc.
Because of these enormous economic activities, a lot of revenue will be collected in this region which substantially helps in development of the country.

Nepal's other parts are Himalayan Region and Hilly areas. They lack good Roads and Transport Systems. Very little economic Activity happens there. Some Hydroelectric Power plant located here and there, local textiles, local papers, and some food stuffs like Alainchi, Amriso are the major products of this area. Even those goods produced here are either marketed in Terai Region like in Nepalgunj, Birgunj, and Birtamod or through Terai Region; these products are sent to outside the country. So, because of lack of systematic markets in hilly and Mountainous areas, all trading activities happen in Terai and most of the revenues from these goods are received by Terai Region.

The Himalayan Region shares Border with China in Northern part but very little activity happens there because of lack of any good Transport Systems except in Tatopani Customs Office.
In this Scenario, we need to think what happens when Nepal is divided into a Federal State? How Economic Resources are collected and how they are distributed?
Who, either Center or Provincial Government, will have power, by Constitution, to collect and distribute such revenue and by what proportion?

This is a question that needs to be meticulously analysed and answers have to be found out. We need such answers that do not bring unequal distribution of wealth among regions. We emphasise that distribution of revenue should be made in such a way that does not hamper regional progress.

This author is trying to search some of the best possible answers in coming days, analysing the issues from Constitutional, Economical, and from Fiscal Policy view point.

Be with us!

(Reach to the author at Chamatkaribaba)