Sunday, November 16, 2008

Economic Crisis 2008 on SAARC

Effects:
1. All SAARC stock markets have crumbled; India and Pakistan leading the table.
2. India most affected and Bhutan the least.
3. SAARC is certainly among the least affected RECs in the world

Issues brought by the crisis in the region:

  • US investors have flown back to save their home operations
  • Corporate spending have dried up due to unavailable credit
  • Unemployment is on the rise
  • Few Indian Banks are in trouble; almost all MNC Banks are affected
  • Consumer Spending have come down
Some good things that happened:
  • Inflation is lowered
  • Local Banks get chance to better their MNC rivals
  • Low Petroleum cost is sure to benefit the region (who are major oil importers)
  • Majorly Agriculture based Economy; least chance for recession
My take:
  • Not so much bad News for SAARC
  • Economy Growth will slow due to lack to external funding
  • Internal Economic Dependence will increase thus pushing up intra-regional trade
  • External Competition will be fierce, but our competitiveness will be high due to low cost
  • Governments will speed up infrastructure spend to boost economic growth; good time to take it up
  • Co-operation between member states will rise as external factors wont be favorable
  • Overall a much better SAARC; probably a sooner SAEU
Whats your take on it? Share your views/comments here. Would be interesting to know them.

Tuesday, July 29, 2008

Madhesi-Pahadi Divide should stop now!

The issue about VP using Hindi while taking oath is going out of the bounds. This has to be stopped and logical discussion needs to be started.

1. VP has committed legal crime, and needs to be penalized.
This is not a question respecting or not respecting Hindi language. It is about following rules and regulations of the country. Hindi is not among the listed national languages of Nepal, and as per the interim constitution VP Jha needs to be penalized.

2. Hindi can be made to the National Languages List
It is true that most of the communities in Terai including Tharu, Khas and Marwari speak Hindi as second language, while most of the Maithili, Bhojpuri, Angika and Awadhi speaking people use Hindi as common medium of communication. This very well calls for adding Hindi in the national languages list.
Along with Hindi, Marwari language may also need to be given the national status.

3. India should not come into internal politics
India is more hurt than pleased by the Hindi language controversy in Nepal. VP Jha has once again given point for anti-Indian lobby to play their politics in Nepal.
This is sad for both Nepal and India. We are amongst the most culturally connected communities, and we need to be one. The relation needs to be developed like US-Canada or US-UK in a progressive manner, and this can happen only when people stop creating pro-Indian and anti-Indian fuss in Nepal.
India is one of the best possible neighbor, and its history proves this fact. Let us respect and be constructive.

4. Dhoti is a ethnic dress of Nepali Citizens, lets not forget that
Dhoti is the ethnic dress of few communities in Nepal, specially the Bhopuriyas and Maithilayas. And in Democratic Nepal, they will have full rights to promote their culture and tradition, lets not create debate in it.

5. There can not be one Madesh
When many communities including Tharu are against One Madesh, it can not simply be created. This is also against the national interest of economic inclusiveness. Whole Madesh as a single state will create a privileged belt and other people will lose a lot.

States needs to be formed in Ethnic and Economic lines while keeping in mind the strategic interest of the country. It can in no case be compromised.

6. New Text Books needs to be included highlighting history of great Nepali Civilizations
This is one very important point. Mithila was once one of the most prominent country in South Asia and its historic importance needs to be emphasized in our school text books. Similarly for Limbuwan, Khumbuwan, Birat, Newa etc. Shah dynasty has some good history, but that should dominate overall past. It needs to be more inclusive and people should feel proud of all our ancient civilization and culture.

7. Stop Ethnic Attacks
Whether it is Madeshi Moment or any other moment, it should be checked. They should just focus on getting ethnic, cultural and political rights. It should focus on getting govt attention by peaceful protests, and mass public moment. This should just focus on protesting against govt. and people responsible for it, and should not be a generic racial protests.
Any attack on Gurkha, Marwari, Maithili, Tharu or Dhimal etc communities is sure to hurt many innocents who have no control on decision making. So the attack on communities needs to be stopped as it serves no purpose, but just flare up communal disputes.

8. No question on Terrotorial Integrity
We all know, all Nepalese Love Nepal and there is no question of more or less. But in frustration many people question the terrotorial integrity of Nepal. One such example is once Paramendra Bhagat, a prominent blogger, once says, "we will get Madesh. But it is a question of getting Madesh within Nepal, independent or with India."
This type of comments really hurts.

Guys, This is all I have to say. share your thoughts here. Lets seriously think to make a better Nepal.

Sunday, July 27, 2008

Madhesi-Pahadi Conflict : Rise of Chure Bhawar

Rights have been given to the Madhesi people. Both the President and Vice President are from the same community. This is in result of the Madhesi movement that happened after the fall of Monarchs led by MJF, and supported by all the Terai based parties.

The movement went forward and Mr. Vice President went ahead taking oath in Hindi, where Hindi language is neither his mother tongue nor amongst national languages of Nepal. This has clearly undermine the national sovereignty of the citizens of Nepal who has voted him to power.

This has hurt India and MJF the most.

I am sure, neither Indian congress nor the Indian Govt is in a mood to puppetize Nepali govt. They very well know any such attempt will backfire, specially when China lies on the other side.
India in no way should have any hand in this activity. It is just the immaturity of our Mr. Vice President to take such step. Today's India is a Economic India and Nepal's development is in line with Indian interest, where in days Nepal can partner India's growth by providing huge energy from Mega Hydro Projects. And we all should know how much important is power for India now when Indian govt has kept its life at stake to do Nuclear Pact with the US.

Regarding MJF, they have now lost everything they have gained except the few constituencies they won in the election. MJF is slowly being dominated old opportunistic politicians of NC, UML, RPP; and the actual revolutionaries are getting sidelined.

They have also lost their agenda of fighting for Madhesi rights and moved to hurting other communities. They are now the vocal attackers of Pahade community and culture. They don't hesitate saying gate pales to the Gurkhas. They say that the Nepali Marwaris are not Nepalis, and they believe other communities in Madesh like Tharu, Dhimal and Rajbangsi dont need their identity in New Nepal.

To answer all these questions, Chure Bhawar, which was one sidelined by the Pahades to give way for progressive and national parties like Maoists, NC and UML, has now come up. Now Mainali of Chure seems to be gaining ground and the strikes against the VP has been organized by them.

Now, its the real test of NC, UML and Maoists to keep people with them. To do this both Forum and Chure needs to be sidelined, and communal politics needs to be ended.

Its the test for these parties, but its the responsibilities of all of us to keep social harmony in the country.

God Bless Us. Yet Again.

Thursday, July 24, 2008

President and Vice President! Did Maoist Lose?

Maoist's candidates have lost both the President and Vice President posts in Nepal. This shows that Maoist are really raw for the parliamentary game. They have been played well by the old Nepal parties and sidelined.

Maoist are seen as a lost power today. And they are going to be in opposition in coming govt too. But that can be a ideal position for Maoist to be to safe guard their long term political interest.

With Dr. Ram Baran Yadav as President, Madhesi forces have achieved the electoral victory but have faced an ideological defeat. Dr saab is a Maithili Brahmin (from so called Madhesi community) and is a vocal supporter of one Nepal like most of the Nepali Congress and UML Leaders.
Also, NC and UML is the party who are not convinced for Federal Nepal too, leave the One Madesh, One Pahad concept.

This is sure to bring MJF is jeopardy in the coming days, as they will now be fighting with NC, UML and MJF (itself) alliance for One Madesh. While Maoist will see the drama from outside.
Maoist can play both the swords now. They can play against MJF is MJF sacrifices the One Madesh demand; and can play against NC and UML for Pahadi vote if MJF went otherwise. This clearly indicates a win-win situation for the emerging forces.

I see this drama for the first president as a strategic victory for the Maoist too. Nepal has a majority of communist people and it always had atleast for last 50 yrs. And this is not likely to change anytime soon.
The presidential election has brought three parties together leading towards the democratic alliance. This will hurt the image of UML and the migrants likely join MAoists.

Rest will have to watch!

Thursday, May 08, 2008

New Nepal Should Have New Thought

Newly formed Nepal government will have many challenges going forward and they will have to work actively and aggressively. It is challenging but not impossible.

Here are my suggestions for the new Nepal Government.

1. Integration to Global Economy

Free Trade Agreement with China, Japan and US to make the economy multi-lateral. This can be in-line with FTA with India.
This should be accompanied with aggressive infrastructure building to get maximum benefit from these bilateral treaties and SAFTA.

2. Suitable Investment Climate
Industrial Protection Act and Liberal Labor Regime to increase investor confidence. Indian Business houses in particular needs to be protected which are the most affected ones, as in todays world Indian Corporates are among the best governed and most aggressive ones. Entry of Companies like IBM, Accenture, GM, GE, Toyota, Infosys, Reliance, Bharti, ICICI etc can completely change the way companies function in Nepal. They will bring quality technology and huge volume of business, thus creating huge employment and great technological know-how.

3. Independent Planning and Execution of National Projects
National Planning Commission with more representation from Nepali Private sector and less dependent from donor agency like ADB, WB or IMF. ADB, WB and IMF are the masters of putting useless conditions for their help and thus take economy towards more bad, so that their relevance in the world remains. Their conditions should not be taken unless utmost necessary and their overall involvement in the economy should be reduced as far as possible.

4. Government Investment Channelization to increase Professionalism
Establishment of a Professional Investment Company to hold all Government Investments in all companies in the lines of Tamasek, Singapore. This needs to be run by Professional Managers on Competitive Excellence Basis.

5. Aggressive Infrastructure Development by adopting all mediums
Open Infrastructure Development Policy to bring in Huge Foreign Institutional Investment (FII) and Foreign Direct Investment (FDI). This should be mainly targeted towards building Hydro-Power, Telecoms, and Transport Facilities.

6. A Nuclear, Power Sufficient Nepal
Nuclear Energy Development Board to work with India and China for development of Nuclear Energy in civil use. RONAST needs to be made more professional and pulled to support Nuclear Case.
Nepal is reach in Hydro-resources but it should not just stick to its use because production and maintenance of Hydro-power is not efficient and effective. Argentina and Hungary has already seen very bad economic and environmental effect with over focus on Hydropower and Nepal needs to learn form them.
Nuclear Energy is safe and has cost effective maintenance. This makes it favorable for long term interest of the economy.

7. where there is Resources there needs to be Military
Effective Military Development more on the lines of Singapore, less Army but most sophisticated and modern equipment.
It can also be making of SAMA (South Asian Military Alliance) or joining Shanghai Co-operation or NATO. This will make sovereign voice strong.

8. Complement India and Not Consume India
Cancellation of 1950 Ind0-Nepal Treaty and replacing it with a new one. This should take care of changed political and economic scenario between the two culturally similar nations. It can be in lines of US-Canada Relation.
Nepal should work on building more natural relations with India on the lines of Australia or UK having with US. This will mean having more meaningful and business friendly relations, and not based on favoritism and puppetism.
Nepal is India's natural ally and vice-versa. They are so much culturally linked that in there is unlikely that the bond will weaken or break. This needs to be actively voiced.
The good and progressive relation will mean great for private sector from both the countries. Indian business houses can invest heavily in Hydro-Power and other areas, while Nepali Business will have one of the World's largest Market for their products. This will increase people to people contact and in good note, which I feel is better than India Government financing projects in Nepal and providing aid (which actually flows to few corrupt takers).

9. Upgradation of Rural and Agricultural Economy
Agricultural Revolution is the next thing in line, and this is the right time to start. With Petroleum cost rising and subsequently food prices rising with the production of bio-fuel, the market for food products is huge.
Nepal has good and fertile land, and can produce much more than it is doing today. It just needs effective people awareness. Government can play a facilitator by creating Tax Breaks for companies involved in food production, distribution and processing industries. This should however be accompanied with good policy for bringing in international players to maintain quality of service.

10. Strict and Good Governance
Hard stance on Anti-Government forces accompanied with effective Government facilities. single window can be created to pay all bills like electricity bill, water bill, taxes etc. This can be outsourced to a professional company and operated 24 hrs in major areas with complete IT Automated Facilities.
It is very important to have strong anti-terrorism and anti-corruption act to include capital punishment. There should be no second thought in clear anti-socials from the country and the economy.

Wednesday, May 07, 2008

Nepal India Relations: Moving Forward?

Earlier, you read a post by Bhupendra, co-blogger of this blog about the implications that Maoists' win in Nepal can bring to India. He has tried his best to dispel the fear among Indians, and particularly, the fear of fundamental Hindus. Among many in India, these fundamentalists like BJP and RSS think that emergence of Maoists in Nepal is just a first step to make a corridor of Communists from Pashupati, Nepal to Tirupati, India.

If the Indian mainstream Medias and analysts are to be believed, they see Maoists as offspring of current china Regime. They see the rise of red flags in the streets of every villages and even in sophisticated towns of Nepal as a Security threat to India. Some lamented that Indian Government could not do anything against Red Uprising, Some showed their anger towards the functioning of government in India and lamented the ignorance of Indian establishment. Some analysts were even quick to comment that India gifted Nepal to China by brokering peace between Maoists and mainstream Nepalese Political Parties. There are even people in India who see the whole process of maintenance of peace as something sponsored by Christian dominated countries and see the whole process of emergence of Maoists as an attack to Hinduism. As usual, the voices of some was even tougher harsh and undignified by suggesting that India must take appropriate steps (meaning pressure tactics, mainly economic and diplomatic as well as military might) to ensure that Nepal does not escape from its palm. For these last kind of analysts, Nepal is just their hereditary property bequeathed by their forefathers and a mere chattel on the hand of India Establishment. So, there was no second thought to express various views on the rebirth of Nepal by Indian Analysts and by security experts.With these developments in Nepal, there are various quarters who believe that the relation of India with Nepal is going to be complicated. On the same line, some think that this is a right time for the military overtake in Nepal which is certainly not improving the ties between these two great nations. The last set of views only fuel the anti-Indian sentiments in Nepal which is not good for both the countries.

The doubt of various kinds was heard may be because of Maoists' past policies seeing India as an expansionist force. Their aim was to even fight with India to defeat Indian Military and make a communist ruled south Asia. That was their plan before 2001 AD. But, after the royal massacre in Nepal, Maoists felt that they can not move alone and saw the greater chances to win if they cooperated with other political parties. So, from that time onwards, Maoists made a revolutionary change taking part in peace process and they understood that multi party democracy can be the safe landing for them. It shows the Maoists' commitments to multi party democracy from that time. The thought processes and debates within the party from 2001 to 2003 gave a concrete shape to this ideology.

The rhetoric of "American Imperialism" and "Indian Expansionism" was slowly changed towards working with all neighboring and friendly states. The first thing Prachanda (Comrade Prachanda as usually said in the Maoist party is popular name of Maoist Chairman Puspa Kamal Dahal) spoke after his victory in election in Kathmandu shows that how serious and important are the issues to build a friendly relationship with neighbors. He unequivocally talked about equal distance from two giant neighbors- India and China but emphasized the "special relationship that Nepal shares with India".

What does that Mean?

That must mean two things, and two good things for the people of India and Nepal. One is that Maoists have understood the ground reality and location of Nepal and can not afford to lose the Indian support. Indian support is required in Nepal for the sustainable peace of Nepal, for Nepal to be economically developed. Maoists have also understood that Nepal can gain nothing by antagonizing India.

So, does that mean being submissive to India in every respects? Not exactly. The strong message that Maoists gave to review the Friendship treaty of 1950 between India and Nepal must be a message to every Nepali that still they can hold their head high and Maoists are not just another party like Nepali Congress or CPN UML in that respect. But, the message of scrapping 1950 Treaty does not mean waging war against India. And, this news should not send any jitters to Indian Establishment.

It is rather the right time to negotiate with Nepalese Government which commands the greatest legitimacy in Nepal in its entire history. If we remember the days when this peace treaty was signed in 1950, the government Nepal had was still of Ranas, one of the most autocratic regime in Nepalese history. India can not take advantage of this treaty forever when the treaty itself was signed in dark ages of Nepalese History.


And, except these some of the so- called political analysts and experts, the news of call for treaty review has not created much flutter in south block and sorrounding areas. The view of Indian Foreign Secretary that India is ready to review the treaty is a very good and first step that India has taken to strengthen the bilateral ties.

That must be a good news for India and Nepal. This is a time when both countries can take the friendly relations forward if Indian Establishment does not get instigated by these comments from various quarters, There is a need of genuine involvement in conversation and which alone can take the peace process forward.

Monday, April 21, 2008

My suggestions to Upendra Yadav

Now MJF has emerged as a major force and it is going to work closely with the Maoist to create Federal Nepal. These two parties believed to be opposing forces by two ways -- first, MJF is believed to be Royalists and Maoist to be Republicans; second, MJF is Pro-India and Maoist Pro-China.

Well there are many arguments surrounding these hypotheses. They are unproved statements so I would prefer calling them hypothesis. Only time can tell whether these rumors are true or these parties are actually the developmental parties representing Nepali People.

I am up for both these players in the Nepali Political space. I think, they represent more or less the general public of current Nepal. They might not be supported for ideology or principle, but are believed more than others on their developmental agenda.
MJF coming before Sadbhawana by wide margin and Maoist getting almost double seats than NC and UML combined were both big surprises. But surprises for analysts and not for the frustrated Nepali mass. They knew, the old ones have nothing to deliver and they have to be removed from power.

Now, after all these things happened and Maoists are going to form the new government. There are few things MJF needs to understand. These are my suggestions to Upendra Yadav.

1. Do not ever play Pro-India gamble. India and China needs to be kept at equal distance politically which is the only way for Nepal gaining economic momentum.
2. MJF has not passed the Military test. Their revolution was not suppressed and this has created a sense in the party that they can get anything they ask for. This is simply not true. For any anti-National sentiment any future Nepali Government will bring the Army out of the barrack. So do not forget the limit.
3. India will never support any ethnic struggle in its neighborhood. It has always supported the Government whether its in Sri Lanka against Tamils or Bhutan against Nepalis.
It supported Hindus in Bangladesh and the result was more dangerous. The Hindus were butchered there and made to flee their home and India on its part remained just a spectator to save its international image.
So do not expect any help from India in any further ethnic war. Maoists, NC and UML will be better powers to gamble to establish a equal opportunity country.
4. Nepal has a very difficult land scape and keeping demands one Madesh and one Pahad can only lead to confrontation. This happens mainly because the Pahad will have very little access to the external market and good economic zone. So the only option remaining with the Pahadi community is to confront the Madhesis. This will do no good for anyone.
5. TDLP and MPRF are believed to have slogans like "This is our Madesh. You Pahade leave Madesh". These are anti-social activities. And you (MJF) will have to lower or silence such voices. Else Military action will be inevitable.
6. It should be understood by all that its about we Nepali people. Nepali meaning citizens of Nepal and not about Nepali, Bhojpuri or Maithili speaking people. This needs to be understood.
There are more Maithili, Bhojpuri and Maddhi speaking people in India than the population of Nepal. And so do Nepali speaking people. There should never be a race to shift the population ratio. If any of this thing starts, then we all can only be sorry for our future generations. They will have no choice but to flee their homeland for opportunities abroad. Thus creating a more pathetic Nepal.
7. Nepali Madesh (proposed state) will have access to Bihar and Bengal (and may be to UP also). This will be a great economic opportunity as these two states have very huge market and not so good investment climate. We can actually be the heart of Economic Activity in the whole of these Central North India.
The only thing needed to make this happen is to bring good economic policies and attract FDIs, both from India and overseas investors.
8. DO NOT QUESTION SOVEREIGNTY. I am very serious of this issue and all Nepalis are. There seems to be people like Paramendra Bhagat in MJF questioning the sovereignty of Lower Nepali Landscape. This I have seen in many of his posts in DFN blog. He often talks about forming a separate country or getting annexed with India. This can never happen. Not even with the help of India. China can counter balance India's involvement if ever it happens.
And looking at the History of India, it will never help the separatists. Modern India has many of its internal problems questioning the sovereignty. So it will always help anyone fighting to save it. Something for the good will and something for reciprocation.

--
I have given my views keeping in mind the best interest of the overall Nepali people from all castes and creed. If it hurts anyone's interests please write it to me, I will be happy to discuss with you regarding the same.

Comments!! Its always welcome!

Saturday, April 19, 2008

Madhesi Parties Flourish : A Ray of Hope

As per the result declared so far in the CA Elections this time under FPTP system, all Madhesi Parties together has emerged as strong political force in Nepal. They have emerged as the single largest force after Maoist. This has been very much opposite to the general perception about Nepal.

It is yet hard to predict how the exalted Madhesi leaders perform especially when they will have to work in alliance with their one time foe number one, the Maoist. All will depend on how MJF under Upendra Yadav plays its cards.

I see the emergence of MJF as a major political force has given the easiest way out to the Madesh crisis. Their loss would have kept the Madhesi voice low and that would help the extremist groups like the MPRF and Terai Tigers. This would have gone to becoming a fourth ethic violent struggle in South Asia along with LTTE in Sri Lanka, Gurkha Movement in Bhutan, Separatist Movement in Kashmir. These all have one disturbing fact, no respect to the sovereignty of the existing boundaries.

MJF on its part, has maintained that respect and have played their cards well within the acceptable boundaries. Expect for few people like Paramendra Bhagat (person close to MJF and its Chief) who maintains a blog on Democracy for Nepal. He has written plenty of good and respectable issues from the Madhesi community but he goes too ahead to bargain even a separate country. This type of arguments can only ignite social violence and can end up in serious ethnic cleansing activities from the state.

But we Nepalis are really lucky. MJF have won and they have good leader in Upendra Yadav. But he will still have to deal with other old opportunists leaders from the community from TDMP and Sadbhawana. Along with that is the over expectation from the community in terms of economic benefits. This will come but will take time and he will have to play safe here.

As most people believe India's involvement in Madhesi crisis. I don't see any such possibility. Separate state for Madhesi community in Nepal and independent councils within it for Bhojpuri, Maithili and Adahi people (as forwarded by Maoist) can actually be a headache for Bihar and the Central Govt. of India. This can arise some similar movement in Bihar for seperate states among these communities and also a greater Gurkhaland Movement in Darzeeling.

Also, the other problem is undermining Maoist in Kathmandu can only lead to its internal support for Indian Maoists. This can be dangerous for Indian Congress and BJP, if not for the whole of India.

Keeping these factors in mind, and knowing the Maoist commitment for Federalism which is the MJF's major demand. The Madhesi Crisis seems solved. It has all good for Madhesi Community and overall Nepalese in common.

Wednesday, April 16, 2008

What can Nepal Maoist Win mean to India?

I have been hearing about Delhi's uneasiness about Nepal Maoist win. Delhi seem to have been overly attached with NC and UML in the past days and more than Maoist win, the two parties loss has been a greater headache. This always happens to any ally and has happened this time to all the NC and UML allies inside and outside Nepal.

There was mistake on the part of India (China and US too) for not understanding the increased influence of Maoist in Nepal. They have severely underestimated. But does this mean problem for India?

Certainly NOT. India is the biggest democracy and a republic state for long. Indian democracy has been very inclusive and had been successful. It is one of the best managed economy now and a serious contender for the future superpower. And the biggest challenge for India had always been the unstable neighbors. Let us talk about the neighbors now.

-- Pakistan has huge internal problems from the fundamentalism to terrorism.
-- Sri Lanka has been suffering LTTE crisis which took the island country from one of the Asian stars in 70s to one poor struggling state now.
-- Bangladesh has been getting unstable with passing time and the political stability is getting away.
-- Bhutan has done moderately successful ethnic cleaning exercise and have been able to bring economy in good note, but this can hardly be stable. The corruption and inequality has been in rise there. Of late the government has been more controlled by the ethnic Drukpas while the private sector is falling more to the remaining Gurkha population. The Gurkha are sure to ask for more inclusion in the Governance in days ahead.

This is over and above the Bhutanese Refugee problem. More than 100 thousand Nepali speaking Gurkhas are living as political refugees in Nepal and are now sent in third country settlement to US, New Zealand and other countries. This may be good for refugees but for Bhutan, this can only be immediate relief. Once the Bhutanese settle in these countries, they are sure to lobby for more democratic and inclusive Bhutan.

-- Burma has its problems. Junta has been ruling with Military prowess and it is not going to remain for long. The people are exploited and they are in revolution. So more serious problems is pending.

So now with so much happening around India, can India become a Superpower? The problematic neighbors can be easily taken to act in favor of India by puppetizing the government. But equally probable is other powers puppetizing Nepalese government and made to act against India. This can hurt India much more if this happens. India and Nepal has very close traditional relations from the cultural and religious similarity. And a anti-India Nepal can be a anti-Iraq Kuwait or anti-US Cuba or anti-Russia Gorgia.

And having a puppet government in Nepal can serve little cause for India. Nepal can hardly be used against any other powers like China. The Himalayas block the possibility. The benefit that Nepal can give to India can easily be achieved from Kashmir or Arunachal Pradesh. So no added advantage in having a puppet.
I have always respected India for respecting sovereigneity of its neighbors. It has given away Independence to Bangladesh after winning it from Pakistan. And History makes Indian intention very clear. But few people still doubt. Let me analyse the possibility of Indian occupation of Nepal and its aftermath.
India can never annex Nepal for various reasons:
1. Huge Gurkha (Nepali speaking) population in India will not like it and may turn against India.
2. There are chances Indian Gurkha turn against India as they have marital and cultural relations with Nepalese.
3. Nepal in India will make a huge Nepali speaking people in India. From Kashmir to Nagaland (including Darzeeling, Sikkim and Bhutan), there will be a virtual belt of Nepali people. This may create a increased Gorkhaland movement which may turn being a great disaster.
4. Any attempt to annex Nepal will not be tolerated by China. It may well bring two giants at War.
5. International Image that India has today will be lost.
6. Nepal in India will bring more problems like increased Agad, Tharu and Maithili speaking people. Thus will bring the Nepali Madesh issues here, which may turn to divide Bihar into Mithila, Agad and Bhojpur.
7. Nepal is pre-dominantly Communist and Nepal in India can never be good for Indian Congress or BJP, two major Indian parties.
8. Nepal has good army and they are sure to give a good resistance to block any such move.

So now, when there is no chance of takeover and no gain of puppetization. The stable and prosperous Nepal can only benefit India. Hopefully once Nepal gets stable and good economy, it will be able to end any terrorism acts going on through Nepal, which Delhi has been pointing for long.

Maoist on this plane has so many benefits to give to India.
1. They are going to be only power in Nepal. Thus India will not have to many powers and create confusion in its foreign policy. This will increase trust among the governments as well as the general public.
2. Maoist government has promised to work on economic agenda. This will be very beneficial to India than a Nepali Government working on Political agenda to save their vested interest.
3. India can look to work close with Nepal Maoist to end Maoist movement in India.
4. Nepal Maoist has been very strict in dealing with irregularities. They have adopted violent means too to control them. So in days ahead, Nepal is set to have low corruption and Terrorism activities. India can only consider itself lucky here.
5. Maoist have welcome Indian investment in Nepal in big way. This can be used by Indian companies to tap Nepali and Chinese Market. Power Sector has already been eagerly looked by Indian Business conglomerate with much interest. Now Infra-structure, Cement, Petroleum, Retail, Telecom etc can be other sectors waiting huge Indian investments.
6. Bihar, UP and Bengal has been developing slow and has been creating lots of problems to the Central Government initiative of quick economic development. A positive and economically active Nepal will better serve the Indian Government here.
7. A Economically and socially powerful Nepal will defend itself from external influences and the chances of Nepal being used against India ends.
8. Nepal Maoist or any other party will never go pro-China. It is simply not possible when most Nepalese have marital and cultural ties with Indian people. So at worst, they can be non Pro-India. This means a fair Nepal and non-corrupt politicians.
9. India will save millions of rupees and lot many higher education seats, which the corrupt government is believed to be taking from India in the name of remaining pro-India. This has hardly benefited India. One side it was direct loss of money and education seats, which could have been better used to feed poor Indians and giving them access to quality education.
Other side, this has created a sense of doubt in Nepali public. They see this as wrong Indian intentions, which in reality has nothing to do with intention. I see this more of a habit than intention. Indian Government has been providing help to Nepalese through Nepal Government and corrupt government has been eating all these. So India has been losing from all sides here. This may end now.

Short Summary:
There may be some unease at the start dealing with Maoist government but certainly Maoist Landslide Victory has all good for India.

Update on 19th April. Follow up reading:
1. Interview with Dr. Baburam Bhattarai
2. From Revolution to Crisis Management form Nepali Times
3. Views from The Hindu
4. Reuters on Maoist Win

Update on 20th April. Follow up reading.
Bibek Poudel on Nepal Maoists and the CA Election Aftermath

© Blogger Templates | Webtalks