My suggestions to Upendra Yadav

Now MJF has emerged as a major force and it is going to work closely with the Maoist to create Federal Nepal. These two parties believed to be opposing forces by two ways -- first, MJF is believed to be Royalists and Maoist to be Republicans; second, MJF is Pro-India and Maoist Pro-China.

Well there are many arguments surrounding these hypotheses. They are unproved statements so I would prefer calling them hypothesis. Only time can tell whether these rumors are true or these parties are actually the developmental parties representing Nepali People.

I am up for both these players in the Nepali Political space. I think, they represent more or less the general public of current Nepal. They might not be supported for ideology or principle, but are believed more than others on their developmental agenda.
MJF coming before Sadbhawana by wide margin and Maoist getting almost double seats than NC and UML combined were both big surprises. But surprises for analysts and not for the frustrated Nepali mass. They knew, the old ones have nothing to deliver and they have to be removed from power.

Now, after all these things happened and Maoists are going to form the new government. There are few things MJF needs to understand. These are my suggestions to Upendra Yadav.

1. Do not ever play Pro-India gamble. India and China needs to be kept at equal distance politically which is the only way for Nepal gaining economic momentum.
2. MJF has not passed the Military test. Their revolution was not suppressed and this has created a sense in the party that they can get anything they ask for. This is simply not true. For any anti-National sentiment any future Nepali Government will bring the Army out of the barrack. So do not forget the limit.
3. India will never support any ethnic struggle in its neighborhood. It has always supported the Government whether its in Sri Lanka against Tamils or Bhutan against Nepalis.
It supported Hindus in Bangladesh and the result was more dangerous. The Hindus were butchered there and made to flee their home and India on its part remained just a spectator to save its international image.
So do not expect any help from India in any further ethnic war. Maoists, NC and UML will be better powers to gamble to establish a equal opportunity country.
4. Nepal has a very difficult land scape and keeping demands one Madesh and one Pahad can only lead to confrontation. This happens mainly because the Pahad will have very little access to the external market and good economic zone. So the only option remaining with the Pahadi community is to confront the Madhesis. This will do no good for anyone.
5. TDLP and MPRF are believed to have slogans like "This is our Madesh. You Pahade leave Madesh". These are anti-social activities. And you (MJF) will have to lower or silence such voices. Else Military action will be inevitable.
6. It should be understood by all that its about we Nepali people. Nepali meaning citizens of Nepal and not about Nepali, Bhojpuri or Maithili speaking people. This needs to be understood.
There are more Maithili, Bhojpuri and Maddhi speaking people in India than the population of Nepal. And so do Nepali speaking people. There should never be a race to shift the population ratio. If any of this thing starts, then we all can only be sorry for our future generations. They will have no choice but to flee their homeland for opportunities abroad. Thus creating a more pathetic Nepal.
7. Nepali Madesh (proposed state) will have access to Bihar and Bengal (and may be to UP also). This will be a great economic opportunity as these two states have very huge market and not so good investment climate. We can actually be the heart of Economic Activity in the whole of these Central North India.
The only thing needed to make this happen is to bring good economic policies and attract FDIs, both from India and overseas investors.
8. DO NOT QUESTION SOVEREIGNTY. I am very serious of this issue and all Nepalis are. There seems to be people like Paramendra Bhagat in MJF questioning the sovereignty of Lower Nepali Landscape. This I have seen in many of his posts in DFN blog. He often talks about forming a separate country or getting annexed with India. This can never happen. Not even with the help of India. China can counter balance India's involvement if ever it happens.
And looking at the History of India, it will never help the separatists. Modern India has many of its internal problems questioning the sovereignty. So it will always help anyone fighting to save it. Something for the good will and something for reciprocation.

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I have given my views keeping in mind the best interest of the overall Nepali people from all castes and creed. If it hurts anyone's interests please write it to me, I will be happy to discuss with you regarding the same.

Comments!! Its always welcome!

Madhesi Parties Flourish : A Ray of Hope

As per the result declared so far in the CA Elections this time under FPTP system, all Madhesi Parties together has emerged as strong political force in Nepal. They have emerged as the single largest force after Maoist. This has been very much opposite to the general perception about Nepal.

It is yet hard to predict how the exalted Madhesi leaders perform especially when they will have to work in alliance with their one time foe number one, the Maoist. All will depend on how MJF under Upendra Yadav plays its cards.

I see the emergence of MJF as a major political force has given the easiest way out to the Madesh crisis. Their loss would have kept the Madhesi voice low and that would help the extremist groups like the MPRF and Terai Tigers. This would have gone to becoming a fourth ethic violent struggle in South Asia along with LTTE in Sri Lanka, Gurkha Movement in Bhutan, Separatist Movement in Kashmir. These all have one disturbing fact, no respect to the sovereignty of the existing boundaries.

MJF on its part, has maintained that respect and have played their cards well within the acceptable boundaries. Expect for few people like Paramendra Bhagat (person close to MJF and its Chief) who maintains a blog on Democracy for Nepal. He has written plenty of good and respectable issues from the Madhesi community but he goes too ahead to bargain even a separate country. This type of arguments can only ignite social violence and can end up in serious ethnic cleansing activities from the state.

But we Nepalis are really lucky. MJF have won and they have good leader in Upendra Yadav. But he will still have to deal with other old opportunists leaders from the community from TDMP and Sadbhawana. Along with that is the over expectation from the community in terms of economic benefits. This will come but will take time and he will have to play safe here.

As most people believe India's involvement in Madhesi crisis. I don't see any such possibility. Separate state for Madhesi community in Nepal and independent councils within it for Bhojpuri, Maithili and Adahi people (as forwarded by Maoist) can actually be a headache for Bihar and the Central Govt. of India. This can arise some similar movement in Bihar for seperate states among these communities and also a greater Gurkhaland Movement in Darzeeling.

Also, the other problem is undermining Maoist in Kathmandu can only lead to its internal support for Indian Maoists. This can be dangerous for Indian Congress and BJP, if not for the whole of India.

Keeping these factors in mind, and knowing the Maoist commitment for Federalism which is the MJF's major demand. The Madhesi Crisis seems solved. It has all good for Madhesi Community and overall Nepalese in common.

What can Nepal Maoist Win mean to India?

I have been hearing about Delhi's uneasiness about Nepal Maoist win. Delhi seem to have been overly attached with NC and UML in the past days and more than Maoist win, the two parties loss has been a greater headache. This always happens to any ally and has happened this time to all the NC and UML allies inside and outside Nepal.

There was mistake on the part of India (China and US too) for not understanding the increased influence of Maoist in Nepal. They have severely underestimated. But does this mean problem for India?

Certainly NOT. India is the biggest democracy and a republic state for long. Indian democracy has been very inclusive and had been successful. It is one of the best managed economy now and a serious contender for the future superpower. And the biggest challenge for India had always been the unstable neighbors. Let us talk about the neighbors now.

-- Pakistan has huge internal problems from the fundamentalism to terrorism.
-- Sri Lanka has been suffering LTTE crisis which took the island country from one of the Asian stars in 70s to one poor struggling state now.
-- Bangladesh has been getting unstable with passing time and the political stability is getting away.
-- Bhutan has done moderately successful ethnic cleaning exercise and have been able to bring economy in good note, but this can hardly be stable. The corruption and inequality has been in rise there. Of late the government has been more controlled by the ethnic Drukpas while the private sector is falling more to the remaining Gurkha population. The Gurkha are sure to ask for more inclusion in the Governance in days ahead.

This is over and above the Bhutanese Refugee problem. More than 100 thousand Nepali speaking Gurkhas are living as political refugees in Nepal and are now sent in third country settlement to US, New Zealand and other countries. This may be good for refugees but for Bhutan, this can only be immediate relief. Once the Bhutanese settle in these countries, they are sure to lobby for more democratic and inclusive Bhutan.

-- Burma has its problems. Junta has been ruling with Military prowess and it is not going to remain for long. The people are exploited and they are in revolution. So more serious problems is pending.

So now with so much happening around India, can India become a Superpower? The problematic neighbors can be easily taken to act in favor of India by puppetizing the government. But equally probable is other powers puppetizing Nepalese government and made to act against India. This can hurt India much more if this happens. India and Nepal has very close traditional relations from the cultural and religious similarity. And a anti-India Nepal can be a anti-Iraq Kuwait or anti-US Cuba or anti-Russia Gorgia.

And having a puppet government in Nepal can serve little cause for India. Nepal can hardly be used against any other powers like China. The Himalayas block the possibility. The benefit that Nepal can give to India can easily be achieved from Kashmir or Arunachal Pradesh. So no added advantage in having a puppet.
I have always respected India for respecting sovereigneity of its neighbors. It has given away Independence to Bangladesh after winning it from Pakistan. And History makes Indian intention very clear. But few people still doubt. Let me analyse the possibility of Indian occupation of Nepal and its aftermath.
India can never annex Nepal for various reasons:
1. Huge Gurkha (Nepali speaking) population in India will not like it and may turn against India.
2. There are chances Indian Gurkha turn against India as they have marital and cultural relations with Nepalese.
3. Nepal in India will make a huge Nepali speaking people in India. From Kashmir to Nagaland (including Darzeeling, Sikkim and Bhutan), there will be a virtual belt of Nepali people. This may create a increased Gorkhaland movement which may turn being a great disaster.
4. Any attempt to annex Nepal will not be tolerated by China. It may well bring two giants at War.
5. International Image that India has today will be lost.
6. Nepal in India will bring more problems like increased Agad, Tharu and Maithili speaking people. Thus will bring the Nepali Madesh issues here, which may turn to divide Bihar into Mithila, Agad and Bhojpur.
7. Nepal is pre-dominantly Communist and Nepal in India can never be good for Indian Congress or BJP, two major Indian parties.
8. Nepal has good army and they are sure to give a good resistance to block any such move.

So now, when there is no chance of takeover and no gain of puppetization. The stable and prosperous Nepal can only benefit India. Hopefully once Nepal gets stable and good economy, it will be able to end any terrorism acts going on through Nepal, which Delhi has been pointing for long.

Maoist on this plane has so many benefits to give to India.
1. They are going to be only power in Nepal. Thus India will not have to many powers and create confusion in its foreign policy. This will increase trust among the governments as well as the general public.
2. Maoist government has promised to work on economic agenda. This will be very beneficial to India than a Nepali Government working on Political agenda to save their vested interest.
3. India can look to work close with Nepal Maoist to end Maoist movement in India.
4. Nepal Maoist has been very strict in dealing with irregularities. They have adopted violent means too to control them. So in days ahead, Nepal is set to have low corruption and Terrorism activities. India can only consider itself lucky here.
5. Maoist have welcome Indian investment in Nepal in big way. This can be used by Indian companies to tap Nepali and Chinese Market. Power Sector has already been eagerly looked by Indian Business conglomerate with much interest. Now Infra-structure, Cement, Petroleum, Retail, Telecom etc can be other sectors waiting huge Indian investments.
6. Bihar, UP and Bengal has been developing slow and has been creating lots of problems to the Central Government initiative of quick economic development. A positive and economically active Nepal will better serve the Indian Government here.
7. A Economically and socially powerful Nepal will defend itself from external influences and the chances of Nepal being used against India ends.
8. Nepal Maoist or any other party will never go pro-China. It is simply not possible when most Nepalese have marital and cultural ties with Indian people. So at worst, they can be non Pro-India. This means a fair Nepal and non-corrupt politicians.
9. India will save millions of rupees and lot many higher education seats, which the corrupt government is believed to be taking from India in the name of remaining pro-India. This has hardly benefited India. One side it was direct loss of money and education seats, which could have been better used to feed poor Indians and giving them access to quality education.
Other side, this has created a sense of doubt in Nepali public. They see this as wrong Indian intentions, which in reality has nothing to do with intention. I see this more of a habit than intention. Indian Government has been providing help to Nepalese through Nepal Government and corrupt government has been eating all these. So India has been losing from all sides here. This may end now.

Short Summary:
There may be some unease at the start dealing with Maoist government but certainly Maoist Landslide Victory has all good for India.

Update on 19th April. Follow up reading:
1. Interview with Dr. Baburam Bhattarai
2. From Revolution to Crisis Management form Nepali Times
3. Views from The Hindu
4. Reuters on Maoist Win

Update on 20th April. Follow up reading.
Bibek Poudel on Nepal Maoists and the CA Election Aftermath